Bernstein sees balanced risk on Vonovia shares amid bond shifts, CEO change

Investing.com -- Bernstein analysts resumed coverage of German property giant Vonovia SE (ETR:VNAn) with a "market-perform" rating and a price target of €32, citing a balanced risk profile in light of shifting bond markets and leadership uncertainty.

The analysts said that while Vonovia’s recent €1.3 billion convertible bond issuance adds modest financial upside, it comes amid broader market recalibrations and a surprise CEO change that clouds visibility on the company’s long-term strategic direction.

On May 13, Vonovia placed two tranches of senior unsecured convertible bonds, each worth €650 million, with maturities in 2030 and 2032. 

The first carries no periodic interest and yields 1.25% to maturity, with an initial conversion price of €39.41. 

The second bears a 0.875% annual coupon and yields 1.75%, with a conversion price of €40.82. Bernstein projects the issuance will lift the forecasted group FFO per share by 2% starting in 2026.

Despite this financial tailwind, analysts cautioned that the overall risk/reward profile remains neutral. 

They pointed to volatility in European bond markets and potential implications of the CEO transition, which occurred shortly after Vonovia outlined its strategic roadmap to 2028.

“European bonds have entered a new area,” Bernstein said, adding that questions linger over the future of Vonovia’s recently presented strategic plan following the executive leadership change.

he company’s adjusted earnings per share are expected to hold relatively steady at €1.84 in 2025 before rising to €1.93 in 2026. Dividend yield is projected to increase slightly from 4.2% in 2024 to 4.4% in 2026.

Bernstein also noted that Vonovia’s financial estimates remain largely unchanged outside of adjustments for the convertible bonds. 

While Vonovia’s bond move modestly enhances its near-term financial profile, Bernstein maintained that the risks tied to market dynamics and internal leadership warrant a wait-and-see approach. The firm sees no clear catalysts to drive outperformance in the near term.

The coverage resumption follows a brief suspension, during which Bernstein took no formal view on the stock. 

With the rating now restored, the brokerage positions Vonovia in line with the broader European market index.