By Michael Nienaber and Paul Carrel
BERLIN (Reuters) - Nervousness among buyers of German goods around the world - often over problems that have yet to materialise - is forcing some of the nation's small- and mid-sized manufacturers to postpone investments, and threatening to stunt economic growth.
These largely family-owned companies of the "Mittelstand", the backbone of German industry, definitely face trouble this year in major export markets, such as an economic slowdown in China and recession in Russia and Brazil.
But much of the anxiety among customers is of a 'what if' nature: what if turmoil on financial markets spreads to the real economy, what if the West gets into a serious confrontation with Russia, what if Britain leaves the European Union?
None of these things may happen, but the risk is that the fear sets off a self-fulfilling downward spiral, feeding through to the Mittelstand in the form of expected orders that never happen, or those already placed that get cancelled.
Larger German corporations - such as Daimler, BASF and ThyssenKrupp - can afford to look beyond such near-term uncertainties and are pressing ahead with investment plans.
However, Mittelstand firms with more modest financial resources make up roughly 98 percent of German export companies and they are being held back by a fall in business confidence caused by the political risks plus this year's dive on stock, energy and commodity markets.
"We're worried that we are talking ourselves into a crisis," said Josef Minster, CEO of the Schlemmer Group, a Bavarian-based automotive supplier specialised in cable protection systems.
"I see a clear risk here that panic reactions on financial markets could spill over and hurt the real economy," said Minster, naming China, Russia and Brazil as the weak spots for his firm's growth prospects.
STRONGER THAN SENTIMENT
The common feeling in the Mittelstand is that the business environment is stronger than sentiment, but this may not last. The concern is that when foreign customers postpone investment decisions, the exporters are forced to follow suit.
This in turn threatens to drag German growth below the government's 1.7 percent forecast for this year, despite a largely buoyant domestic economy.
Stephan Gais, CEO of Mittelstand firm Mahr, which makes high-end measuring tools used in the auto and chemicals sectors, cited tensions between the West and Russia over the Ukraine conflict, the refugee crisis, the British referendum in June on whether to leave the EU, and general anxiety about terror attacks as risks to his business.
"If any of these geopolitical issues escalates, then things will get difficult," said Gais, who is seeing delays in investment decisions by domestic as well as foreign customers in Mahr's biggest markets: Germany, the United States and China.
"We're trading from quarter to quarter," he said, adding that his plan for five percent sales growth this year was looking challenging, though still achievable. "But I'm not doing any expansionary investment at the moment."
According to a survey by the Ifo economic institute, sentiment among German manufacturers plunged last month by its largest amount since the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in 2008, a major event in the global financial crisis.
A breakdown for Mittelstand firms, the KfW-ifo SME Barometer, highlights the confidence problem.
A sub-index measuring their expectations of future business fell for the first time since October 2014 below zero, the long-term average since 1991. And yet the firms still rated their current business as exceptionally positive.
"This ... shows that the mood is so far affected mainly by the many disturbing news reports and the concerns and fears they create, and not by actual economic trends," KfW bank analyst Klaus Borger said.
Smaller 'micro-cap' companies listed on the stock market are also cautious. Of those that have reported outlooks this year, 10 gave forecasts above analysts' estimates, 32 in line with expectations, and 15 below.
By contrast, companies in the blue-chip DAX index able to take a longer view are investing in new technologies and markets they believe will grow in due course. Daimler, for example, is investing 500 million euros ($550 million) in a battery factory in Germany for electric cars.
Overall, however, investment is weak. Gross investments by German firms fell 0.5 percent in 2015, the Federal Statistics Office reported. This meant the economy had to rely largely on strong private and state consumption to grow 1.7 percent.
HOME COMFORT
"Fear is spreading that the outlook for 2016, which was optimistic until recently, could suddenly deteriorate," said Borger, a Mittelstand expert at the KfW state development bank.
But even if the uncertainties fail to clear up as quickly as they appeared and manufacturing firms shift into a lower gear, the economy is unlikely to steer towards recession. "The fundamental conditions for Germany's upswing to continue are still favourable," Borger said.
German consumers are enjoying record-high employment and rising real wages, while the state is spending billions of euros on accommodating and integrating record numbers of asylum seekers. Therefore neither private nor public consumption is expected to slow down for some time.
Among Mittelstand companies benefitting from the strong domestic demand are thousands of construction firms.
"Our order situation is really good; this year will be even better than 2015," said Willi Grothe, head of the Brandenburg-based firm Calvoerder Bau which specialises in building and reconstruction of pre-World War One-style homes.
Overall, Mittelstand firms like Calvoerder Bau produce nearly half of Germany's economic output, employ more than 15 million staff and provide training for four in five apprentices.
Mario Ohoven, president of the BVMW Mittelstand association, urged the government to step up support for the sector by investing in future projects such as digital infrastructure.
However, he added: "Even under considerably worse global economic conditions, the German Mittelstand has proved itself to be a guarantor of growth and employment."