By Francesco Canepa
FRANKFURT (Reuters) - The European Central Bank is bracing for a low take up from banks for its new round of free four-year loans, several sources close to the matter told Reuters, as credit demand remains subdued and many lenders sit on excess cash.
Presented in March as a potent tool for boosting the euro zone's modest credit recovery, the ECB's second Targeted Long-Term Financing Operation (TLTRO II) will see the ECB pay banks to take its money provided that they increase lending to households or enterprises.
But bank demand for the new loans is likely to be small when the scheme kicks off on June 22, conversations with central bank sources revealed.
After stripping out 423 billion euros (332.74 billion pounds) of outstanding loans from the ECB's previous TLTRO, which banks are likely to swap for the new, cheaper debt, banks are expected to take just a few tens of billions of euros of new money, at most, the sources said.
This would be far less than the 82.6 billion euros (64.97 billion pounds) borrowed at the first TLTRO auction in September 2014 and only a tiny fraction of the 1.6 trillion euros (1.26 trillion pounds) available under the scheme, which will involve an auction every three months until February.
The ECB said in its economic bulletin that the success of the scheme should not be judged by how much cash is allocated but by whether financing conditions improve as a result of it.
Lending rates in the euro zone declined significantly when the bank launched its first TLTRO programme in 2014, despite a widespread perception that take-up of the loans had been disappointing.
But with lending rates generally low already, the new round of four-year loans may primarily serve the purpose of improving banks' margins and providing the sector with a stable source of cheap cash in case of trouble.
RELUCTANT
Under TLTRO II, banks qualify for billions of euros of initially free loans from the ECB and could be paid up to 0.4 percent of what they borrow on condition that they lend more to the real economy, excluding mortgages.
Despite a relatively low threshold set by the ECB for the most favourable rate, when the central bank will essentially pay banks to take out the loans, banks appear reluctant to take on much new debt.
This a reflection of sluggish credit demand in the euro zone, despite ECB largesse that includes 80 billion euros of monthly money-printing and ultra-low interest rates as well as the TLTRO.
ECB surveys of small-to-medium enterprises in the euro zone show access to funding has been the least of their worries since October 2014, while finding new customers has been the most pressing one.
Despite the easy access to funding, corporate loans are growing at just 1 percent per year, compared to double digit rates before the crisis, according to ECB data.
But the TLTRO programme could have a silver lining for banks, the sources said.
First, it would provide them with a liquidity 'backstop' which would protect the sector and lending against any jitters in the funding market, they noted.
This was one of the considerations taken into account by the ECB while devising the plan, after sharp falls in the bonds and shares of banks during the winter.
Second, the TLTRO's "rewards" for lending would help compensate banks for the ECB's 0.4 percent penalty charge on their deposits, which has been blamed by lenders in cash-rich countries such as Germany for squeezing lending margins.