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Are Bulls Wrong About This Market?

Published 26/04/2017, 14:44
Updated 26/04/2017, 14:44

Investing.com - The S&P 500 has recovered after last week’s bout of uncertainty to within a few points of all-time highs but the question that begs itself is what comes next? The detonator for the rebound was the relief sparked by a market-friendly outcome to the first round of the French presidential elections. But the fact a moderate emerged as the current front-runner going into the second round eliminates some element of risk in the short-term, it’s ‘not-bad’ news, rather than solidly good news either. And “not-bad” news such as this merely means a worst-case scenario was avoided for now, which isn’t something that improves the outlook for U.S. corporate earnings. Hopes for tax and regulatory reform in the U.S. remain high but the market is still waiting to see if the Republican-controlled Congress and the Trump administration can deliver on promises. The S&P 500 failed to break through 2,400 points in March and not much has changed since then. The next hurdle on the horizon is Congress’ ability to pass a federal budget after its failure to repeal Obamacare. If the Republicans cannot agree on the federal budget that augurs badly for more important issues such as tax reform. This suggests the S&P 500 will remain range bound until tax reform emerges or dies. Until something happens on this front, the strategy to follow would seem to be to buy on weakness and sell into strength.

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