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Analysts at Lloyds (LON:LLOY) Bank are targeting lower levels in Pound Sterling against the Euro, but look for a continuation higher against the Dollar.
As part of a regular weekly technical update, analysts at the UK bank say the Pound has finally started to move against the Euro following a spell of uninspiring price action.
"As is typical for EUR/GBP, only when you give up on an idea the market moves. That was the case last week with the market having run out of steam on the downside, resulting in an impulsive push higher (weak UK data) which took us back through 0.8463. Then we were off," says Lloyds.
0.8463 in Euro-Pound equates to the break lower through 1.1816 in the Pound to Euro exchange rate.
The analysis provides a ’tactical’ approach to near-term price action in key exchange rates, which gives interested market participants an idea of directionality and what credible targets look like.
Above: EUR/GBP chart courtesy of Lloyds Bank.
From here, the Pound is tipped to extend recent losses against the Euro, and periods of strength should be sold into.
"That has taken us back through 0.85 so far. If the market can hold above that area, it would re-establish back in the prior (higher) range. That would allow things to extend towards at least 0.8625. We’d be dip buyers again now looking for that, leaning on 0.8460ish."
The rise through 0.85 in EUR/GBP equates to a drop below 1.1764 in GBP/EUR, with Lloyds targeting a move through "at least" 1.1594, with any rises back towards 1.1820 liable to be sold into.
Pound to Extend Rally Against the Dollar
"GBP/USD continues to grind out new highs, and the primary trend is still clearly up," says Lloyds of price action in the Pound to Dollar exchange rate.
However, analysts warn of some momentum divergence coming through on the charts, hinting at a slowdown in the rate of climb, "which cools our bullish bias a little even given the broader (weaker) USD trend."
"That said, to trigger a more meaningful squeeze lower would need 1.3436 to fail and there is a bit of work to do to put that line under pressure," adds the analysis.
"Absent of that a further creep towards 1.3674 and 1.3738/58 should be possible. We’d simply look to trim longs back a bit around here."
Above: GBP/USD chart courtesy of Lloyds Bank.
Pound Sterling has recently run out of momentum against the Dollar, and turned outright weaker against the Euro following a soft run of domestic economic releases, which put an August rate cut at the Bank of England back in play.
The UK economy contracted by 0.3% month-on-month in April, down from 0.2% in March and below a consensus expectation for -0.1%. Employment data meanwhile showed a 109K drop in May alone, the biggest drop since the Covid crisis.
FX market developments come ahead of the Bank of England’s Thursday policy decision, where interest rates are to be kept unchanged.
However, commentary on the soft data could verify market bets for an August rate cut.
With the August move now ’in the price’, the prospect of further GBP weakness linked to shifting interest rate expectations decreases, which could help it find a temporary floor against the Euro.
Wednesday’s CPI inflation release poses the next domestic test for the Pound, with any significant surprises here likely to prompt further adjustments in Pound exchange rates.
An original version of this article can be viewed at Pound Sterling Live