Cyber Monday Deal: Up to 60% off InvestingProCLAIM SALE

Falling prices on radar as euro inflation drops again

Published 31/07/2014, 12:13
Falling prices on radar as euro inflation drops again

By Martin Santa BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Annual inflation in the euro zone fell in July to its lowest since the height of the financial crisis in 2009, keeping the risk of deflation on policymakers' radar but unlikely to spur the European Central Bank into further policy action.

The slowdown to 0.4 percent, coming amid subdued wage pressures despite a fall in unemployment to a near two-year low, will fuel concerns of a possible broad fall in prices across the 18-nation bloc.

But much of the decline in inflation was down to a sharp fall in volatile energy prices, Thursday's data from EU statistics office Eurostat showed, and the ECB is still waiting to assess the impact of a batch of measures it presented in June to pep up a fragile economic recovery.

"Today's figures don't give any assurance that the euro zone is already out of the deflation danger zone," said Peter Vanden Houte, chief euro zone economist at ING.

"Moreover, with the escalating conflict with Russia dampening growth prospects, it seems unlikely that deflation fears will disappear any time soon."

Consumer prices rose at their lowest annual rate since October 2009 when they fell by 0.1 percent, Eurostat data showed.

Core inflation - which excludes energy, food, tobacco and alcohol costs - was unchanged at 0.8 percent for the second month in a row. Energy prices fell 1.0 percent on the year.

NO CHANGE AT ECB

The ECB holds its next policy meeting next Thursday, and initial reactions in the market - where assets were little changed - and from analysts suggested the inflation numbers had not shifted expectations that monetary policy will stay put.

"We believe that the ECB will sit tight through the rest of 2014," said Howard Archer, chief European economist at IHS.

ECB officials have said inflation expectations in the bloc remain in line with the bank's target of just under 2 percent over the medium term, even though the ECB sees inflation rising only slowly to 1.5 percent in the final quarter of 2016.

Analysts see limited risks of outright deflation in the euro zone, amid expectations that energy prices may soon rise again and sharp food price disinflation be draw to a close.

"We still expect the euro zone to avoid overall deflation," Archer added.

ECB President Mario Draghi has said the central bank is ready to take further unconventional measures if needed, and said that quantitative easing - or money printing to buy assets - "falls squarely in our mandate".

But the barriers to embarking on such a round of broad asset purchases are high, notably for some influential ECB policymakers such as Bundesbank chief Jens Weidmann.

WAGE PRESSURE LIMITED

By country, Spain saw annual deflation of 0.3 percent in July, after the economy roared ahead in the three months to June at its fastest pace since before the financial crisis.

In Germany, inflation eased to 0.8 percent, days after the ECB and the Bundesbank emphasised the need to raise wages in Europe's largest economy.

Unemployment was unchanged in Germany in June, separate data from Eurostat showed on Thursday. But in the euro zone as a whole it dropped to 11.5 percent from 11.6 percent in May, the lowest rate since September 2012.

Some 18.4 million people remain without a job in the single currency bloc and much stronger economic growth, combined with necessary structural reforms by the governments, is needed to kick-start a solid build-up of new employment.

© Reuters. European Central Bank President Draghi pauses during the monthly ECB news conference in Frankfurt

Among the rest of the bloc's five largest economies, unemployment fell in Italy, Spain and the Netherlands and rose in France.

(Additional reporting by Paul Carrel in Frankfurt, editing by John Stonestreet)

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.