By Leika Kihara and Tetsushi Kajimoto
TOKYO (Reuters) - Big Japanese manufacturers were slightly more optimistic in the third quarter but service-sector sentiment worsened, a central bank survey showed, adding to signs that a solid economic pickup will remain elusive without another burst of stimulus.
As the weak yen lifted exporters' mood, big companies raised capital expenditure plans and saw job markets tightening the most since 2008, the Bank of Japan's "tankan" survey showed, offsetting some of the gloom from recent data showing an April tax hike is threatening Tokyo's efforts to reinflate the economy.
But the mixed data may do little to relieve pressure on policymakers to expand fiscal and monetary stimulus if the economy stumbles ahead of premier Shinzo Abe's crucial decision by year-end on whether to proceed with a second sales tax increase in October 2015.
"Given the slow pace of recovery... the government would deploy a bigger stimulus than the last time and press the BOJ to act as well," said Junichi Makino, chief economist at SMBC Nikko Securities, who expects the economy to grow at an annualised rate of around 2 percent in the third quarter after its sharp 7.1 percent slump in the second quarter.
The headline index gauging big manufacturers' sentiment improved by 1 point from three months earlier to plus 13 in September, the tankan showed on Wednesday, going against market expectations for a two-point deterioration.
But the mood among big service-sector firms worsened by 6 points to plus 13 in September, more than market expectations, to hit the lowest level since June 2013. It was the second straight quarter of deterioration, as bad weather and the sales tax hike to 8 percent from 5 percent hurt consumption.
Moreover, both big manufacturers and non-manufacturers expect business conditions to barely improve three months ahead, the survey showed.
"The effect of the tax hike, bad weather and the weak yen are being felt more among non-manufacturers," Ko Nakayama, head of the BOJ's economic statistics division told a briefing. "The recovery from the sales tax hike is being somewhat delayed."
Indeed, the pockets of strength in the tankan survey highlighted the slow and fragmented nature of the economic recovery after its second quarter slump - the worst since the global financial crisis.
"A lot of people were braced for some bad numbers because production has been weak, but the tankan shows that companies don't expect this weakness to last," said Shuji Tonouchi, senior fixed-income strategist at Mitsubishi UFG Morgan Stanley Securities.
"The economy may continue a slow recovery, but other data are coming in weak. You can't say it's OK to raise the sales tax again simply because of this tankan data."
BOJ HOLDING FIRM
Data in the last few months suggested that any economic rebound in the July-September quarter will be modest, dashing policymakers' hopes the economy will ride out the tax-hike impact fairly quickly.
Government officials have voiced readiness to offer additional fiscal stimulus through an extra budget for the current fiscal year ending in March 2015, if growth stalls.
But most analysts don't see the BOJ being hurried into offering more stimulus, although there is broad agreement in markets that the central bank's 2 percent inflation goal by mid-2015 is overly ambitious.
"There have been some expectations about additional monetary easing near-term, but today's tankan makes that scenario less likely. I don't think the BOJ will move anytime soon," said Hideo Kumano, chief economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute.
The BOJ has stood pat since deploying an intense burst of monetary stimulus in April last year, when it pledged to double base money via aggressive asset purchases to achieve its 2 percent inflation target.
BOJ policymakers will scrutinise the tankan, regarded as among the most comprehensive gauges of the economy given its big sample base, when they meet for a rate review next week.
The central bank is set to keep monetary policy steady next week but may consider offering a bleaker view on some components of the economy such as factory output, some analysts say.
The tankan showed that the boost from the weak yen lifted sentiment among big manufacturers, which expect net profits to increase in the current fiscal year.
Their dollar/yen forecast for this current fiscal year, at 100.73 yen, is still well below 110 yen hit on Wednesday, suggesting more room for profits to increase.
Big firms expect to increase capital expenditure by 8.6 percent in the current fiscal year, more than a median market forecast for a 7.2 percent increase, it showed.
The tankan's capital expenditure plans have a strong positive correlation with capital spending in gross domestic product data and so serves as a good indicator of the strength of business investment.
(Additional reporting by Stanley White and Kaori Kaneko; Editing by Shri Navaratnam)