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Forex - Steady above $1.30, sterling set to end week on high

Published 28/07/2017, 13:26
Updated 28/07/2017, 12:26
© Reuters.

Investing.com - Sterling was well supported on Friday, and up against most major currencies. The week’s data releases helped keep the pound buoyant, especially Thursday’s distributive trade survey, which showed a boost in retails sales in July.

At 11:00 GMT, the pound was up 0.21% against the dollar, GBP/USD was 1.3093. Steady above $1.30, the pound looks to close its second highest week of 2017 against the dollar.

Following the Federal Reserve statement on Wednesday evening, which sent the dollar lower, the pound enjoyed much of Thursday above 1.31, US earnings and robust durable goods order figures helped to push the pound back below 1.31.

The Confederation of British Industry's (CBI) distributive trade survey showed that monthly retail sales rose to 22 in July, up from 12 in June. this was the highest reading for three months.

On Wednesday, the Office for National Statistics reported that UK gross domestic product rose by 0.3% in the second quarter. While the services sector drove growth, the ONS said the report showed that the British economy has experienced “a notable slowdown in the first half of this year.”

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, fell to 93.55. It has stayed below the 94.0 mark since the Federal Reserve’s statement on Wednesday evening, when they kept interest rates on hold. It is unclear whether they will hike rates a third time this year.

Earnings reports from the US have seen the stock markets reach new highs, however the dollar has been weakened by domestic issues, such as the failure to pass the healthcare bill through Republican-dominated Congress.

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The most recent ‘skinny’ healthcare reform bill was voted out on Thursday night. This calls into question the Trump administration’s ability to introduce tax reform and infrastructure projects.

The euro was up on Friday following positive data from across the euro-zone. EUR/GBP was up 0.22 against the pound at 0.8958.

The pound looks to finish the week stronger than most major currencies. The Swissie is weakened due to the Swiss National Bank’s supposed monetary policy stance. GBP/CHF was up 0.71% at 1.2696.

Japanese inflation figures largely came in as expected, causing little turmoil in the yen. GBP/JPY was up 0.17% on Friday at 145.57.

Ahead of Canadian growth data for May, the pound edged just 0.11% against the Canadian dollar. GBP/CAD was 1.6420.

The pound fared well against the New Zealand and Australian dollars. GBP/NZD jumped almost half a percentage point at 0.46% to 1.7528, while GBP/AUD was up 0.40% at 1.6463.

Investors are looking at the release of GDP figures for both the US and Canada on Friday.

The pound looks to close the week on a high, despite the Bank of England meeting next Thursday, which looks largely dovish. Following the lacklustre growth data, it is expected that BoE Governor Mark Carney won’t face much opposition to keep interest rates unchanged.

Although calls to tighten monetary policy have come from hawks Michael Saunders, Andy Haldane and Ian McCafferty this past month, the Monetary Policy Committee has a total of 8 members on the panel. Kristin Forbes, who voted to hike rates in the last MPC meeting, has left the committee. It is unknown how her replacement Silvana Tenreyro will vote.

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