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German economic gloom spooks markets, bolsters EU investment calls

Published 14/10/2014, 15:43
German economic gloom spooks markets, bolsters EU investment calls

By Michelle Martin and Jean-Baptiste Vey

BERLIN/LUXEMBOURG (Reuters) - Gloomy data on the euro zone's biggest economy, Germany, spooked financial markets on Tuesday and added weight to calls for faster efforts to revive public investment at a meeting of European Union finance ministers.

The German government sharply lowered its growth forecasts for this year and next, euro zone industrial production tumbled in August, and a closely watched German economic sentiment index registered its first negative reading since November 2012, at the height of the euro zone crisis.

Berlin slashed its official growth forecasts to 1.2 percent in 2014 from 1.8 percent in April, and to 1.3 percent in 2015 compared to 2.0 percent in the previous projection, blaming crises abroad, notably with Russia, and moderate global growth.

"For a dynamic economic development but above all for long term growth and prosperity, investment plays a key role. Germany must invest significantly more in its infrastructure," Economy Minister Sigmar Gabriel said in announcing the figures.

However, he rejected any departure from the goal of Chancellor Angela Merkel's right-left "Grand Coalition" to balance the budget next year for the first time since 1969.

Even if Berlin were to borrow to modernise its roads and railways, broadband networks and energy grids, that would not create more growth in weak euro zone countries, he said.

"More debts in Germany do not create growth in Italy, France, Spain or Greece," said Gabriel.

"So the German government sticks to its goal that a federal budget without new debt - the famous 'black zero' - can be achieved with the growth rates of 1.2 percent in 2014 and 1.3 percent in 2015 that we now expect," he told a news conference.

IN THE DOCK

Berlin has been in the dock at international economic organisations such as the IMF, the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the OECD for failing to use its large current account surplus and budgetary room for manoeuvre to invest in its creaking infrastructure.

Shares tumbled in Europe and Asia and German 10-year bond yields hit a record low after the closely watched ZEW indicator of investor and analyst morale fell below zero for the first time in almost two years in October.

The slide suggested Germany is reeling from geopolitical crises abroad, a weak euro zone and limp domestic demand.

Elsewhere, Greek 10-year government bond yields rose above 7 percent for the first time since March because of political uncertainty surrounding the country's proposed exit from its international bailout programme and the risk of a snap election early next year. The economic jitters also pushed up yields on Spanish and Italian government bonds.

Some analysts said the downbeat German sentiment, combined with record low inflation expectations, raised the likelihood that the ECB would resort to printing money to buy government securities, known as quantitative easing (QE).

However, any such policy faces fierce opposition from Germany's central bank, which has publicly criticised the latest ECB monetary easing, and from the conservative German political and financial establishment.

ZEW chief economist Clemens Fuest said that if inflation expectations continued to decline, the ECB would be justified in engaging in QE, but the central bank was reaching the limits of what it could do and it was up to governments to act now.

The German government had room to spend more on investment and it might not be the best signal EU-wide for Berlin to insist on sticking to a balanced budget in 2015, Fuest said.

Euro zone industrial production fell more than expected in August, reflecting a slump in the output of capital goods used for investment and raising concern that the economy is weaker than previously thought.

The European Union's statistics office Eurostat said production in the 18 countries sharing the euro fell 1.8 percent in August from July for a 1.9 percent year-on-year decline.

The grim data gave new urgency to talks among EU finance ministers in Luxembourg on launching a promised 300 billion euro public-private investment programme promised by incoming European Commission chief Jean-Claude Juncker.

PRAGMATIC

French Finance Minister Michel Sapin, whose economy is on the brink of recession, said ministers had discussed ways of kick-starting major investment projects immediately so that the effects were tangible next year and in 2016.

"The risk it that this won't be effective until 2017 and beyond. But we need an impact in 2015 and 2016," he told reporters.

Asked about German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble's opposition to a debt-financed infrastructure drive, Sapin said one option that ministers had discussed was to increase again the capital of the European Investment Bank.

He described Schaeuble's attitude as practical, calling for a programme of fast-track infrastructure projects to be outlined rapidly and for the financing to be sorted out afterwards.

France has said it will need another two years beyond the 2015 deadline agreed with its EU partners to bring its budget deficit down to the EU limit of 3 percent of national output due to a slump in growth and very low inflation.

Paris is due to submit its 2015 draft budget to the European Commission for review on Wednesday.

Sapin made clear France would not change the figures to tighten spending despite strong indications that the EU executive may reject the budget within two weeks as failing to meet French deficit-cutting commitments.

After talks with euro zone colleagues on Monday evening, Sapin opened the door to a possible amendment in the budget figures in the coming weeks if the EU made progress on an investment programme and the ECB acted boost lending to business and combat the risk of deflation.

Asked whether his Socialist government might amend its budget bill to reduce the deficit more, Sapin said: "We will see the direction that the talks go in, we'll see where the Commission comes down in its understanding of our figures."

Spain, which implemented tough austerity measures after receiving an international bailout for its banks in 2012, called for the French to be shown some leniency for the common good.

© Reuters. General view of a factory of steel manufacturer Salzgitter AG in Salzgitter

"We need to be coherent, use the flexibility we have while meeting our fiscal rules. There is no space for confrontation, we are all in the same boat," Spanish Economy Minister Luis De Guindos told reporters.

(Additional reporting by Stephen Brown in Berlin, Kirsti Knolle and Eva Taylor in Mannheim, Robin Emmott in Luxembourg and Jan Strupczewski in Brussels; writing by Paul Taylor; editing by Philippa Fletcher)

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