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The Week Ahead: 5 Things to Watch on the Economic Calendar

Published 26/02/2017, 09:58
© Reuters.  5 Things to Watch on the Economic Calendar In The Week Ahead
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Investing.com - In the week ahead, global financial markets will focus on U.S. President Donald Trump's address to Congress on Tuesday for further details on his promises of tax reform, deregulation and infrastructure spending.

This week is also peppered with a handful of Fed appearances, most importantly Fed Chair Janet Yellen on Friday, as investors look for further hints on the timing of the next U.S. rate hike.

In addition, market players will keep an eye out on a revised reading of fourth-quarter U.S. growth data to gauge the strength of the economy.

Meanwhile, in the U.K., traders will focus on a trio of reports on activity in the manufacturing, construction and services sectors for further indications on the continued effect that the Brexit decision is having on the economy.

Elsewhere, investors will await monthly inflation data out of the euro zone to assess the timing of when the European Central Bank will start unwinding its massive asset purchase program.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of the five biggest events on the economic calendar that are most likely to affect the markets.

1. President Trump's Address to Congress

President Donald Trump will make his first major address to Congress at 9:00PM ET on Tuesday. Investors are hopeful he will shed light on his economic agenda, most notably tax reform.

Market players will be paying close attention to comments about a potential border adjustment tax, which would put a 20% tax on imports into the U.S. but not tax exports.

Beyond tax reform, investors will be eager to learn more about Trump's plans for repealing the Affordable Care Act, reducing regulations on businesses and increasing infrastructure spending.

Analysts warned that market sentiment could take a hit if Trump's plans look slow to execute or are overly vague.

President Trump has been credited with being a major catalyst behind the stock market's impressive rally in recent weeks, although he has yet to outline his economic policies in detail.

2. Fed Chair Janet Yellen Speaks

A handful of Fed policymakers are due to make public appearances this week that may offer insight on interest rate hikes ahead of the central bank's March meeting.

Monday sees Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan make a public appearance.

On Tuesday, San Francisco Fed President John Williams and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard are on tap.

Dallas Fed's Kaplan and Fed Governor Lael Brainard are scheduled to speak Wednesday.

On Thursday, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester speaks.

Finally, on Friday, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker, Fed Governor Jerome Powell and Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer will deliver remarks.

At 1:00PM ET Friday, Fed Chair Janet Yellen will speak on the economy to the Executives Club of Chicago.

Last week, minutes from the Fed's latest meeting showed policymakers thought it may be appropriate to raise interest rates again "fairly soon", although it gave no firm signal on the timing of its next rate move.

Fed fund futures priced in about a 27% chance of a rate hike in March, according to Investing.com’s Fed Rate Monitor Tool. Odds of a May increase was seen at 52%, while June odds were at around 70%.

3. U.S. Revised 4th Quarter Growth Data

The U.S. is to release revised figures on fourth-quarter economic growth at 8:30AM ET (13:30GMT) Tuesday. The data is expected to show that the economy expanded at a healthy 2.1% annual rate in the final three months of 2016, upwardly revised from a preliminary estimate of 1.9%.

Besides the GDP report, this week's calendar also features U.S. data on durable goods orders and pending home sales on Monday, consumer confidence on Tuesday, personal consumption expenditures and ISM manufacturing on Wednesday, weekly jobless claims on Thursday followed by the ISM non-manufacturing survey on Friday.

A recent string of solid data reinforced the view that the U.S. economy is sufficiently robust to warrant higher interest rates in the months ahead.

Meanwhile, earnings are winding down, but a few big retailers like Target (NYSE:TGT), Lowe’s (NYSE:LOW), Best Buy (NYSE:BBY) and Costco (NASDAQ:COST) are on the radar this week, as are results from Salesforce.com (NYSE:CRM).

4. U.K. February PMI's

The U.K. will release readings on February manufacturing sector activity on Wednesday, followed by a report on the construction sector on Thursday and the service sector on Friday.

The manufacturing PMI is forecast to inch down to 55.5 from 55.9 a month earlier, construction activity is expected to improve slightly to 52.4 from 52.2, while a survey on Britain's giant services sector is forecast to dip to 54.2 from 54.5 last month.

The Bank of England raised its forecasts for growth and inflation earlier this month, but appeared in no rush to raise interest rates.

5. Euro Zone Flash February Inflation Figures

The euro zone will publish flash inflation figures for February at 10:00GMT (5:00AM ET) Thursday.

The consensus forecast is that the report will show consumer prices rose 2%, reaching the European Central Bank's target and accelerating from a gain of 1.8% in January. Core prices are expected to increase 0.9%, unchanged from the prior month.

Spain, France, Italy and Germany will produce their own CPI reports throughout the week.

Despite the upward trend in inflation, ECB President Mario Draghi recently downplayed the significance of rising consumer prices, saying that underlying inflation pressure remains “subdued.”

Stay up-to-date on all of this week's economic events by visiting: http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

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