🔺 What to do when markets are at an all-time high? Find smart bargains, like these.See Undervalued Shares

India's growth pace likely slowed in April-June - poll

Published 29/08/2016, 11:41
© Reuters. Labourers work at the site of an under construction residential complex on the outskirts of Ahmedabad

By Krishna Eluri

BENGALURU (Reuters) - India's economic growth likely lost some momentum in the April-June quarter on cutbacks in domestic and global demand, a Reuters poll showed.

The poll also found that economists expect the newly-passed goods and services tax will take time to have an impact on gross domestic product growth.

For April-June, the median forecast of 40 economists was for GDP growth of 7.6 percent from a year ago, slower than the 7.9 percent in the previous quarter.

The slower pace would still be rapid, by any standard. China reported 6.7 percent annual growth for April-June, and the Philippines posted 7.0 percent.

Much of India's slowdown was attributed to slumping demand. On an annual basis, the country's exports fell for 18 consecutive months until June, when they finally rose. Business surveys have pointed to slowing foreign and domestic demand.

The latest reform from the government, the goods and services tax, should transform the country into a common market and is widely expected to add up to two percentage points to the GDP growth pace after implementation.

But the median forecast of 13 economists who answered an extra question on the tax change was that GST will have no major addition to the country's GDP during the fiscal year starting April 2017, when the measure is slated to take effect.

The standard rate for GST of more than 17-18 percent "could be negative for the services economy, which is more than 60 percent of GDP," said Abhishek Upadhyay, economist at ICICI Securities.

"Net impact may be negative initially, even as medium term impact will be undoubtedly positive," he said.

But in the fiscal year 2018-19, GST is expected to increase the GDP growth rate by 0.75 percentage points.

© Reuters. Labourers work at the site of an under construction residential complex on the outskirts of Ahmedabad

"Near-term costs may exceed the benefits, though investment ramp-up and streamlining benefits will follow," said Vishnu Varathan, economist at Mizuho.

(Polling by Khushboo Mittal and Shaloo Shrivastava; Editing by Richard Borsuk)

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.