By Anna Koper and Alan Charlish
WARSAW (Reuters) - Poland's rate hike cycle is paused but has not ended, the country's central bank governor said on Thursday, after the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) decided to leave rates on hold for the second month in a row.
Wednesday's decision to leave the main interest rate at 6.75% came as slowing growth and surging inflation pose a headache for policymakers trying to bring price growth back to target without tipping the largest economy in the European Union's east into recession.
"We are still in... a pause in the tightening cycle, we are not ending the tightening cycle," Glapinski told a news conference.
He said that based on available data and forecasts the current level of interest rates was appropriate, but that the bank could still tighten further if necessary.
Glapinski spoke after the central bank's latest inflation projections showed that a return of price growth to the bank's 1.5-3.5% target could be expected in 2025 at the earliest. Inflation in October was 17.9% according to a flash estimate from the statistics office.
However, Glapinski warned that returning inflation to target too quickly could have damaging economic and social consequences.
"If we wanted to return to the inflation target too soon, we would cause a recession," he said.
Glapinski said that inflation would continue to rise at the beginning of 2023, but that it would not exceed 20%.
"We expect inflation to peak ... in January-February and start falling from March onwards," he said, adding that it would return to single-digits in the fourth quarter.
He said that the central bank favoured a strong zloty currency, but that it did not see any need to intervene in the currency market at the moment.
The zloty was 0.4% stronger on the day at 1524 GMT, firming in line with other regional currencies as the dollar slumped after U.S. consumer prices rose less than expected.