Black Friday is Now! Don’t miss out on up to 60% OFF InvestingProCLAIM SALE

Sterling falls past $1.39 as Brexit risks intensify

Published 24/02/2016, 13:02
© Reuters. A rates board is seen outside of a Forex outlet in central London, Britain

By Anirban Nag and Patrick Graham

LONDON (Reuters) - Sterling sank to a seven-year low on Wednesday as companies and investors rushed to insure themselves against the chances of a British exit from the European Union that HSBC said could knock off a fifth of the value of pound.

The aftermath of Prime Minister David Cameron's announcement of a June 23 referendum on "Brexit" has driven the worst three days for the world's fourth most traded currency since the depths of the financial crisis in 2009.

Another wave of selling in London on Wednesday morning drove it to less than $1.39, within 4 cents of levels not seen since it sank to parity to the dollar in the mid-1980s.

"There are very few people willing to take the other side of the move lower," said Josh O'Byrne, a strategist at Citi. "Knowing now that the vote will be in June, there is a greater incentive for those that haven't hedged GBP exposure to do so."

The cost of currency derivatives, which allow companies, big institutional investors and hedge funds to protect future revenues or asset values held in sterling against sharp swings in the currency, jumped to their highest in more than four years.

HSBC, Britain's biggest bank, said the currency could lose up to 20 percent of its value and UK economic growth could be up to 1.5 percentage points lower next year if Britain votes to leave.

The latest poll showed the "In" camp only narrowly ahead at 51 percent, versus 39 percent for "Out", with 10 percent undecided. Other polls have been even closer.

Sterling fell to $1.3878 with analysts saying the 2009 low of $1.35 now a real prospect. It fell 0.6 percent to its weakest in 16 months against the euro.

The Bank of England's broader trade-weighted measure of the currency's broader strength fell 1 percent to its lowest in two years.

"A vote for Brexit would have potentially huge consequences for all asset classes," HSBC said.

"Following a vote to leave we think uncertainty could grip the UK economy, triggering a potential slowdown in growth and a collapse in sterling."

So far, however, the reaction on other UK markets has been far more muted.

Government bond prices are steady on the week, any nervousness among investors holding UK assets offset by the prospect that the vote will further push back any rises in interest rates by the Bank of England.

Governor Mark Carney said on Tuesday that the bank could still use rate cuts and a broadening of a bond-buying programme to boost Britain's economy if needed after the Brexit vote.

Gilt yields have edged lower for four out of the last five trading sessions and have moved mostly in tandem with German Bund yields. The 10-year gilt yield is so far down around 5 basis points this week, at 1.364 percent. London's stock exchange has also seen a far more mixed response. Some property companies have been targeted as potential losers from the vote, while others have benefited from the assumption that a weaker pound would help exports.

© Reuters. A rates board is seen outside of a Forex outlet in central London, Britain

(This version is corrected to make it clear that sterling could fall 20 percent))

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.