By Daniel Ramos
LA PAZ (Reuters) - Bolivia goes to the polls on Sunday in a referendum that will decide if President Evo Morales can stay in power for a fourth term, with the result looking uncertain as support for the once popular leader has ebbed.
Morales, currently on his third term, is seeking to change the constitution so he can run for re-election in 2019, potentially allowing the onetime coca grower to remain president until 2025.
While voters across Latin America have largely turned against the populist leftists that once dominated the region, Morales, Bolivia's first indigenous president, has remained standing.
But that may be about to change. Polls in recent weeks have shown Morales with a slight but weakening lead, and a survey by Equipos Mori last week put the 'yes' and 'no' votes in a dead tie, with some 11 percent undecided.
At a rally to get out the 'yes' vote this week in La Paz, Morales said he had been asked to stay on by supporters who wanted his brand of "pragmatic socialism" to continue.
"Brothers and sisters, when there is a change of (government) ministers, investments are paralyzed. I believe the population is right to ask for continuity," he said.
If he wins, he says he will continue his '2025 Agenda' that includes eradicating extreme poverty.
Morales has been credited with slashing poverty in one of South America's poorest countries by spending a natural gas windfall on welfare programs and new infrastructure. In 2014 he won re-election with 61 percent of the vote.
But a growing body of critics charge his administration with corruption, waste and authoritarianism. Recent allegations about an ex-girlfriend whose company has won lucrative government contracts weigh heavily on support for Morales. The government calls the accusations dirty tactics on behalf of the opposition.
With the opposition flagging deficiencies in health care and education, a common chant at "no" vote rallies is "They have the arrogance to ask for re-election!"
Morales "may be a victim of his own success," said Inter-American Dialogue think tank head Michael Shifter, pointing to rising expectations.
With feelings running high, six people were killed in protests this week, apparently after Morales supporters set fire to an opposition local government office.
"The polls may overstate the 'no' vote, but it looks like being a much closer-run contest than anything Evo Morales has had to fight since he became president in 2006," said John Crabtree, a Latin American political analyst based at Oxford University.