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The Week Ahead: 5 Things to Watch on the Economic Calendar

Published 23/10/2016, 08:09
© Reuters.  5 Things to Watch on the Economic Calendar This Week

Investing.com - The U.S. is to release preliminary data on third quarter growth next week, which will be watched for fresh indications on whether interest rates could rise in December. Before that, the U.S will release figures on durable goods and home sales.

The U.K. is also to publish preliminary data on third quarter growth, the first look at GDP since the June 23 Brexit vote. Finally, a batch of data on business activity for October is due out of the euro zone on Monday.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of the five biggest events on the economic calendar that are most likely to affect the markets.

1. U.S. advance Q3 GDP

The U.S. is to release preliminary data on third quarter GDP on Friday, which is expected to show a significant rebound from the second quarter’s 1.4% annual rate to 2.5%. Federal Reserve officials have indicated that interest rates could rise in December if the economy remains on track.

Also to watch, U.S. durable goods figures for September are to be published on Thursday, which are expected to show a 0.2% increase, up from 0.1% in August.

U.S. housing data next week will give a look at new home sales on Wednesday and pending home sales on Thursday.

2. U.K. preliminary Q3 GDP

The U.K. will release its third quarter preliminary growth estimate on Thursday. The data will be closely watched as it covers the first three months following the June 23 vote to exit the European Union.

Growth is expected to have slowed to 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in the three months to September from 0.7% in the previous quarter.

Recent economic reports have indicated that the economy has shrugged off Brexit jitters, but a weak reading could raise the question of whether additional easing by the Bank of England is necessary.

3. BoE’s Mark Carney to speak

BoE Governor Mark Carney is due to testify on Tuesday about the economic consequences of the Brexit vote before the Economic Affairs Committee in the House of Lords.

Carney has said that inflation will rise because of the fall in the value of the pound and the BoE has to weigh increased inflation against supporting the economy with low interest rates.

4. Euro zone PMIs

Preliminary data on business activity in October for key euro zone members as well as for the wider euro area are due out Monday.

Analysts are expecting the euro zone services and composite PMIs to tick up to 52.5 and 52.8 respectively, but the manufacturing index is forecast to remain unchanged at 52.6.

Separately, the German Ifo business climate index due out on Tuesday is expected to hold steady in October.

5. Australia inflation data

Australian inflation data due out on Wednesday may help determine whether the country’s central bank decides to cut interest rates in the coming months.

The consumer price index is expected to rise to 0.5% from 0.4% previously and to 1.1% on a year-on-year basis from 1.0% in the second quarter.

Australian inflation data tends to move the market more than other countries, as it is released only once every quarter.

Stay up-to-date on all of this week's economic events by visiting: http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

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