Good Morning Everyone!
Remember, the S&P has gained on every FED Day since tightening began:
- 3/16: +2.24%
- 5/4: +2.99%
- 6/15: +1.46%
- 7/27: +2.62%
Will the trend continue today?
Prices as of 4 pm EST, 9/20/22; % YTD
MARKET UPDATE Powell expected to raise rates 75 basis points today, 5th consecutive time
- In 8 out of past 10 decisions, S&P 500 goes up on the day of a Fed decision
- Long-only and Retail Investors are already very defensive anticipating 2023 negative estimate revisions
- Hedge fund exposures are at 5-year lows
- Markets are pricing in a terminal rate of 4% to 4.5%
10yr 3.5% new highs
- 2 p.m. Fed decision
- 2:30 p.m. press conference
US$ 110.5 new 1-year highs
- U.S. dollar is a safety trade on news Putin has stepped up his war against Ukraine
- Putin called for a partial mobilization of 300,000 reservists and issued veiled threats
Crude 85 +1%
- 10:30 a.m. Department of Energy inventory report
- Senator Mancin’s Energy Infrastructure permitting bill will be unveiled today.
- The Bill may need the support of as many as 20 Senate Republicans.
Earnings
- General Mills (NYSE: GIS)
CRYPTO UPDATE Voyager Digital update
- Bankrupt lender’s assets for sale
- FTX and Binance top bids - $50 million each
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Robinhood (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:HOOD) lists USDC
- First stablecoin on platform
- USDC = 2nd largest stablecoin behind Tether (USDT)
Altcoin season is over
- Over past month 69% of altcoins outperformed Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC)
- Above 75% = Altcoin season
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