On Thursday, Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) downgraded Equinor (EQNR:NO) (NYSE: EQNR) stock, shifting from an Equalweight to an Underweight rating. The firm also adjusted the price target for the Norwegian energy company to NOK270.00 from the previous NOK305.00. This change is based on projections for the company's dividend payments and stock buyback program.
The downgrade comes with an analysis of Equinor's financial strategy and capabilities. Morgan Stanley's assessment includes an estimation that Equinor can sustainably grow its quarterly dividend by 2 cents annually.
According to their projections, this would result in a 2026 ordinary dividend per share of $1.58, which is expected to increase to $1.90 by the end of the decade. This suggests an approximate 5% annual growth in dividend per share (DPS) until 2030.
The firm also anticipates that Equinor will be able to counterbalance between 1.5% and 2% of this DPS growth through a reduction in share count, attributed to its share buyback program. These financial maneuvers are within what Morgan Stanley believes are the company's financial capabilities.
Using a 9% discount rate and an exchange rate of 10 Norwegian Kroner (NKr) to the US dollar, Morgan Stanley has calculated the present value of Equinor's future dividend stream. The firm's model indicates that by the end of 2025, the present value of the dividends is estimated to be around NKr 270. This valuation reflects a 6% potential downside from Equinor's current stock level, which aligns with the rationale behind the Underweight rating.
The analysis by Morgan Stanley suggests cautious expectations for Equinor's stock performance based on the projected dividend growth and the impact of the share buyback program on the company's valuation. The revised price target of NOK270.00 represents the firm's adjusted outlook for the stock's future value.
In other recent news, Equinor has been making significant strides in both their financial performance and strategic initiatives. The energy company posted robust second-quarter results with an adjusted operating income before tax of $7.5 billion and a net income of $1.9 billion according to IFRS. The company also revealed plans for an extensive capital distribution to shareholders, projecting a total of $14 billion in 2024.
In addition to this, Equinor and Dominion Energy (NYSE:D) secured offshore wind leases in a recent U.S. government auction, with Equinor committing $75 million for a lease covering 101,443 acres.
Analysts at UBS upgraded Equinor's stock from Sell to Neutral, citing more balanced near-term risks for the company. Despite a potential downside risk to Equinor's earnings for 2024 and 2025, UBS anticipates a recovery in oil prices.
Equinor also experienced a cut in share target from TD Cowen, which maintained a Hold rating on the stock. The firm's analyst underscored the importance of external factors such as global gas prices in the valuation and performance of Equinor's stock.
These recent developments reflect Equinor's strategic focus on enhancing operational efficiency, advancing its renewable energy portfolio, and maintaining strong capital distribution.
InvestingPro Insights
In light of Morgan Stanley's recent downgrade of Equinor (EQNR:NO) (NYSE: EQNR), it's essential to consider additional financial metrics that offer a broader perspective on the company's current valuation and performance. According to InvestingPro data, Equinor boasts a market capitalization of $75.15 billion and a Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio of 8.27, indicating a potentially undervalued stock compared to industry averages. The company's Price/Book ratio stands at 1.72, further suggesting that the stock might be reasonably priced relative to its net asset value.
InvestingPro Tips highlight Equinor's significant dividend to shareholders, with a robust dividend yield of 10.52% as of the latest data, which aligns with Morgan Stanley's focus on the company's dividend strategy. Additionally, Equinor's stock generally trades with low price volatility, offering investors a more stable investment option in the often turbulent oil and gas market. It's also noteworthy that the company has maintained dividend payments for 23 consecutive years, underscoring its commitment to returning value to shareholders.
For investors seeking further insights, there are additional InvestingPro Tips available, providing a comprehensive analysis of Equinor's financial health and market position. These tips delve into aspects such as the company's profitability, cash flow, and debt levels, which are crucial for making informed investment decisions. Interested readers can find more detailed tips on Equinor by visiting the InvestingPro platform.
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