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Can AstraZeneca stock recover? UBS points to regulatory support despite challenges

EditorEmilio Ghigini
Published 20/11/2024, 07:20
AZN
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On Wednesday, AstraZeneca (LON:AZN) (NASDAQ:AZN:LN) (NASDAQ: AZN) experienced an adjustment in its stock rating by UBS, with the firm upgrading the pharmaceutical giant from Sell to Neutral. The new price target is set at GBP 113.00, maintaining the previous target despite recent challenges faced by the company.

The upgrade comes after AstraZeneca's shares suffered a significant 24% drop over the past three months. This decline was largely attributed to ongoing government investigations in China and less-than-expected performance data from Dato-DXd, a lung cancer treatment. Despite these setbacks, UBS sees a neutral position for AstraZeneca moving forward.

AstraZeneca's sales in China for the year 2023 accounted for 13% of the company's total sales, with an estimated profitability slightly below average, contributing to approximately 10% of earnings.

The company has been under scrutiny for several issues in China, including allegations of insurance fraud involving its cancer drug Tagrisso in 2021, accusations of illegal drug importation into mainland China, and the detention of AstraZeneca's President in China, Leon Wang, for reasons that have not been disclosed.

Nevertheless, UBS acknowledges the potential repercussions of these investigations on AstraZeneca's operations. However, the firm suggests that recent approval actions by the China National Medical (TASE:PMCN) Products Administration (NMPA) may hint at ongoing support for AstraZeneca's presence in China over the long term, which could mitigate some of the risks associated with the current challenges.

In other recent news, AstraZeneca has reported significant growth in its financial performance, with total revenues surpassing consensus estimates to reach $13.565 billion. Key drugs in the company's oncology portfolio, including Tagrisso and Calquence, exceeded expectations, contributing to a substantial 21% increase in revenue.

AstraZeneca has also upgraded its financial guidance for fiscal year 2024, forecasting a high-teens percentage increase in total revenue and core EPS.

The company's drug, Tagrisso, received a recommendation for approval from the European Medicines Agency for the treatment of specific types of lung cancer. This recommendation is based on the results of the LAURA Phase III trial, demonstrating the drug's potential for extending median progression-free survival for patients.

Analysts from Leerink Partners have maintained an Outperform rating on AstraZeneca, adjusting the price target to $87.00 from $86.00 following the company's third-quarter earnings report.

In addition to the positive analyst outlook, the company's Non-Executive Chair of the Board, Michel Demaré, CEO Pascal Soriot, and Senior independent Non-Executive Director, Philip Broadley, have made significant share purchases, often seen as signs of confidence in the company's prospects.

Despite a decrease in revenue from China, AstraZeneca remains optimistic about its long-term revenue target of $80 billion by 2030. These recent developments reflect AstraZeneca's ongoing growth and investment strategy, with a focus on strengthening its oncology portfolio and expanding its market presence.

InvestingPro Insights

Recent data from InvestingPro sheds additional light on AstraZeneca's financial position and market performance. Despite the challenges highlighted in the article, AstraZeneca maintains a strong market presence with a substantial market capitalization of $197.16 billion. The company's revenue growth remains robust, with an 18.04% increase in the most recent quarter, indicating resilience in its core business operations.

InvestingPro Tips suggest that AstraZeneca is a prominent player in the Pharmaceuticals industry, which aligns with its global stature mentioned in the article. Additionally, the company has maintained dividend payments for 32 consecutive years, demonstrating a commitment to shareholder returns even in the face of recent stock price volatility.

The stock's current P/E ratio of 30.29 indicates that investors are still pricing in growth expectations, despite the recent share price decline noted in the article. This valuation metric, combined with the UBS upgrade to Neutral, suggests that the market may be recalibrating its outlook on AstraZeneca's future prospects.

For readers interested in a deeper analysis, InvestingPro offers 11 additional tips that could provide further insights into AstraZeneca's investment potential.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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