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Michael Ashton

  • Analysis & Comment

Michael Ashton's Comment & Analysis
A complete archive of Michael Ashton's articles, including current analysis & comment.

The CPI for April came in pretty close to expectations. CPI came in at 0.31% m/m, and 0.29% on core, versus a priori expectations for 0.37% and 0.30%. This relative accuracy does not necessarily mean...
There is a popular meme that the government has an incentive to inflate, because the same debt is worth less in real terms at a higher price level. If inflation is high enough, then the government (it...
The bad news is that the contraction in the money supply appears to be over. That’s not bad news per se (see below), but it’s bad in that the anti-inflationary work that was happening is...
This is one of my favorites, and every few years I re-blog some portion of this article. The original, I wrote in 2010. The basic question is, what is the correct way to respond as an investor to...
After a week when the NY/NJ area saw an earthquake, an eclipse, and a gorgeous 75-degree spring day, it is time to get back to work.Today’s CPI report was not expected to be particularly great....
As the steadier measures of inflation (core, median, or sticky depending on your preferences) have started to overshoot expectations slightly – the y/y measures continue to decline, but slower...
Four fairly quick observations on this Federal Reserve meeting day, not all of which have anything to do with the Fed:1. The FOMC today announced unchanged policy for now on the overnight interest...
I must say that I didn’t see this one coming. Credit where credit is due, though: while Street economists were just a little low (consensus was +0.40% headline, +0.30% core), the CPI swap market...
The Biden team keeps talking about how they can’t believe how underwater the President’s poll numbers are when the economy is so frickin’ good. “As soon as people figure out...
In late 2022, I often said that while I didn’t think it would be severe I figured we would have a recession in 2023 because we had never seen an energy spike at the same time that the Fed was...