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James Picerno

www.CapitalSpectator.com
  • Analysis & Comment

James Picerno's Comment & Analysis
A complete archive of James Picerno's articles, including current analysis & comment - Page 3

Bitcoin remains a winning asset since President Trump’s tariff announced on Apr. 2 — “Liberation Day,” as he called it. In relative and absolute terms vs. the world’s primary markets, the...
US GDP Still on Track to Rebound in Q2
By James Picerno - Jun 06, 2025
Uncertainty and risk continue to weigh on the outlook for the economy, but the latest nowcasts for the government’s second-quarter GDP report (due on July 30) are still pointing to recovery after...
Mixed Data for May Clouds Outlook for US Economy
By James Picerno - Jun 05, 2025
May is shaping up to a challenging month for reading the macro tea leaves in an effort to gauge how tariffs are affecting the US economy. Tomorrow’s payrolls report from the Labor Department may...
The US stock market has recovered most of its recent losses, and the rebound has left momentum strategies far ahead in the performance horse race for equity factor results this year, based on a set...
The long-run expected total return for the Global Market Index (GMI) ticked higher again in May, edging up to an annualized 7.2% from the 7.0% estimate in the previous month. Today’s estimate is...
US stocks rebounded in May, posting the first monthly gain since January. The strong recovery lifted American shares to the top of the leaderboard for the major asset classes last month, based on a...
The mega-spending bill that the House passed now awaits debate in the Senate. A key issue for markets is how, or if, the legislation will be amended with respect to projections that, if passed, the...
The government bond market had been more or less flatlining since  since President Trump on Apr. 2 announced “Liberation Day” and rolled out US tariffs, which sparked concern about inflation. But in...
Uncertainty about inflation, the economy, and trade policy continues to blur the macro outlook, which in turn supports expectations that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged at the...
US economic output remains on track to rebound in the second quarter following the slight decline in Q1, based on the median estimate for a set of GDP nowcasts compiled by CapitalSpectator.com. The...