Turns out my "chat" was correct, as I happen to know the market well. Fertilser is now over £1,000 (if you can get it). Now a war in one of the biggest wheat producing areas, plus no ammonium nitrate imports from Russia will mean high wheat prices for some time. Even futures contracts for April '23 is £300/t. No manipulation, fact!
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If you look back historically ie pre 1980s in real terms these prices are still very low ... inorder to sustain food production forward into our climate crisis we will need significant investment to innovate our way to zero carbon clean green practices... Hopefully the market will be allowed to do its job...if it isn't then 8 fear future price shocks will make this one look like slugs ****
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This chart is pure manipulation..
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With fertilser prices being double and in some cases triple, Wheat prices will be high for quite a while. Many active ingredients in everyday agrochemicala are not being produced so the impacts of crop yields will also be with us indefinitely. Expect high wheat values for a long time. 200+ as normal.
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i expect retracement 150 area over time
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How low do world wheat stocks need to go to show price correction, is it going to keep on climbing?
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More to do with how valuable it will become in store (and current growing crop) if continued dryness in South America and the Black Sea regions. Also how much currency devaluation will play out.