The US is seeing record numbers of new covid-19 cases on a daily basis – will it continue to accelerate this week?
US
In a week exceedingly light on top tier data, investors may be forced to pay more attention to the coronavirus headlines they have been so desperate to ignore.
Over the last couple of weeks, America’s number of new daily covid-19 cases has grown from the 30,000s to the 40,000s to 50,000s. Yet repeatedly the markets have put their fingers in their ears, instead focusing on things like the strength of June’s nonfarm jobs report or the (early days) positive vaccine news from Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) and BioNTech.
Dr Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and maybe the most prominent member of the White House Coronavirus Task Force, has spoken of what is ‘going to be a very disturbing’ US death toll – which is currently around 130,000 – while warning that daily cases could soon hit a staggering 100,000. And this is more than 3 months into a pandemic.
Florida is almost a microcosm for the US as a whole, the state regularly accounting for a fifth of the overall daily total of new cases, following a lockdown that was a lockdown in name alone.
As mentioned, without anything like a nonfarm jobs report to pull focus – there’s the latest services PMIs on Monday, unemployment claims on Thursday, PPI on Friday, and not much else – investors may have little option but to stare those grim coronavirus figures in the face.
There are, of course, a couple of factors that could ride in white knight-style. Any more upbeat vaccine news from the various labs working on one has shown time and again to be a market-lifter. And there have also been reports Congress is considering a new fiscal spending bill – potentially including stimulus checks and back-to-work bonuses – an update on which could be handy.
UK
Just like in the US, there’s not a whole lot of data on offer in the UK this week, leaving the FTSE at the mercy of macro-winds.
The latest construction PMI arrives on Monday, with the Halifax HPI on Tuesday, and the CB leading index on Friday.
The pound will also be keeping an eye on the Brexit situation, after the most recent round of talks ended in a harmful stalemate.
In terms of the corporate calendar, the highlights are Halfords, JD Sports, Electrocomponents (LON:ECM) and Reach on Tuesday, and Persimmon (LON:PSN), PageGroup (LON:PAGE) and Superdry (LON:SDRY) on Thursday.
Eurozone
Over in the Eurozone, there are the region-wide retail sales reading on Monday, the French trade balance number on Tuesday, the latest EU economic forecasts on Wednesday, and the French and Italian industrial production figures on Friday.
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