In the long run - will technology change the prospects for emerging market growth?
- The challenge to low-cost manufacturing in emerging markets is from technology
- Some industries will benefit but many jobs will be displaced globally
- The mercantilist model of emerging market growth will need to adapt
- Technology will solve some of the demographic challenges of the developed world
In July 2016 the International Labor Organisation (ILO) released a report entitled – ASEAN in Transformation – in the preface it relates the apocryphal story of a 1950’s conversation between Henry Ford, Chairman of Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F), and Walter Reuther, Leader of the United Automobile Workers Union.
Ford asked, “Walter, how are you going to get those robots to pay your union dues?” to which Reuther responded: “Henry, how are you going to get them to buy your cars?”
It reminds us that disruptive technology is not new. As the latest wave of innovation begins to disrupt employment globally, it makes sense to reassess the prospects for some of the world’s fastest growing economies.
The ILO report goes on to focus on the impact of technology on ASEAN countries, a region with 632mln people. This is an under-researched topic. They highlight the industries which are most likely to be affected and suggest ways countries can adapt to minimise the impact of automation on employment.
To read the entire report, please click on the pdf file below.