Breaking News
Ad-Free Version. Upgrade your experience. Save up to 40% More details

Will Polls Be Top Of The Pecking Order In US?

By Spreadex (Connor Campbell)Market OverviewOct 16, 2020 11:12
Will Polls Be Top Of The Pecking Order In US?
By Spreadex (Connor Campbell)   |  Oct 16, 2020 11:12
Saved. See Saved Items.
This article has already been saved in your Saved Items

What will win out the week: covid-19 concerns, election forecasts or stimulus chatter?

The closer the election draws near – and we are now just over 2 weeks away from the vote – the less likely it is that a deal is going to be reached between House leader Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.

The pair are still in negotiations, but one would assume that the appetite for co-operation may be lower on the side of the Democrats than the Republicans given the current polling.

According to some surveys, Joe Biden has accrued a 17 point leader over the incumbent Donald Trump, causing his fixed odds price to fall from 40/85 to 4/9 in the space of a week. Trump, meanwhile, has seen his price stay at 7/4.

As for the spreads, Biden is now at an Electoral College Votes price of 321-329, up on last week’s 320-328, with the President falling from 210-218 to 208-217.

Capping off a trio of positive movements for the challenger, Biden is at a Total States Won spread of 26.25-27.75 to Trump’s 23.25-24.75 – that compares to 25.5-27 and 24-25.5 around 7 days ago.

The thinking it is the stronger a Biden victory – especially if Democrats take the Senate, which is a tough proposition; polls have then as minor favourites, with a slim majority – the more robust the eventual stimulus package will be.

Yet the markets haven’t quite taken to all this just yet, distracted by the murky stimulus situation at present, and another wave of worry over covid-19 restrictions around the world, but most notably in Europe.

That’s likely to be an ever-present concern this week, and will be battling for investors’ attentions with the election, which sooner rather than latter will start to have a more pronounced impact on trading.

As for the economic calendar, it’s a quiet one – well, in the US at least, with building permits and housing starts on Tuesday, existing home sales and jobless claims on Thursday, and the flash manufacturing and services PMIs for October on Friday.

The real hot data comes out of China on Monday, when the fixed asset investment, industrial production, unemployment rate and retail sales figures are joined by the third quarter GDP reading.

The country swung from a 6.8% contraction in Q1 to a 3.2% increase in Q2 – and another improvement is expected this time out, with forecasts of around +5.2%. Meeting that target is crucial if the markets want a positive start to the week.

The Q3 earnings seasons is now also in full swing, with some big boys coming out to play. IBM (NYSE:IBM) updates on Monday, followed by Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX), Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG), Philip Morris (NYSE:PM) and Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT) on Tuesday; Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) and Verizon (NYSE:VZ) on Wednesday; and Intel (NASDAQ:INTC), AT&T (NYSE:T), Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) and, potentially, Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), on Thursday.

With Boris Johnson’s Brexit deadline shifted, the UK can get back to worrying about covid-19, especially after the announcement of the new tiered system led to tighter restrictions in various areas of the country, including London.

Beyond the pandemic, and the macro-matters dictated by the US, the FTSE and pound are facing inflation data on Wednesday, CBI industrial order expectations on Thursday, and flash PMIs and retail sales readings on Friday.

In terms of the corporate calendar, Bellway (LON:BWY) reports on Tuesday, with Antofagasta (LON:ANTO) and Segro (LON:SGRO) on Wednesday, and Unilever (LON:ULVR), Anglo American (LON:AAL) and Rentokil Initial (LON:RTO) on Thursday.

Like the UK, the Eurozone is in the grip of a fresh round of covid-19-related restrictions, including curfews in Paris and the shuttering of non-essential retailers etc in Ireland, and is an issue that will remain near the top of investors’ minds.

As for data, there’s German PPI on Tuesday, consumer confidence on Thursday, and the latest flash manufacturing and services PMIs on Friday.

"Disclaimer: Spreadex provides an execution only service and the comments above do not constitute (or should not be construed as constituting) investment advice or recommendations, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Any person placing trades based on their interpretations of the above comments does so entirely at their own risk. Spreadex Ltd is a financial and sports spread betting and sports fixed odds betting firm, which specialises in the personal service and credit area. Founded in 1999, Spreadex is recognised as one of the longest established spread betting firms in the industry with a strong reputation for its high level of customer service and account management.

In relation to spread betting, Spreadex Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Spread betting carries a high level of risk to your capital and can result in losses larger than your initial stake/deposit. It may not be suitable for everyone, so please ensure you fully understand the risks involved."

Original Post

Will Polls Be Top Of The Pecking Order In US?

Related Articles

Will Polls Be Top Of The Pecking Order In US?

Add a Comment

Comment Guidelines

We encourage you to use comments to engage with users, share your perspective and ask questions of authors and each other. However, in order to maintain the high level of discourse we’ve all come to value and expect, please keep the following criteria in mind: 

  • Enrich the conversation
  • Stay focused and on track. Only post material that’s relevant to the topic being discussed.
  • Be respectful. Even negative opinions can be framed positively and diplomatically.
  •  Use standard writing style. Include punctuation and upper and lower cases.
  • NOTE: Spam and/or promotional messages and links within a comment will be removed
  • Avoid profanity, slander or personal attacks directed at an author or another user.
  • Don’t Monopolize the Conversation. We appreciate passion and conviction, but we also believe strongly in giving everyone a chance to air their thoughts. Therefore, in addition to civil interaction, we expect commenters to offer their opinions succinctly and thoughtfully, but not so repeatedly that others are annoyed or offended. If we receive complaints about individuals who take over a thread or forum, we reserve the right to ban them from the site, without recourse.
  • Only English comments will be allowed.

Perpetrators of spam or abuse will be deleted from the site and prohibited from future registration at’s discretion.

Write your thoughts here
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
Post also to:
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Thanks for your comment. Please note that all comments are pending until approved by our moderators. It may therefore take some time before it appears on our website.
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Add Chart to Comment
Confirm Block

Are you sure you want to block %USER_NAME%?

By doing so, you and %USER_NAME% will not be able to see any of each other's's posts.

%USER_NAME% was successfully added to your Block List

Since you’ve just unblocked this person, you must wait 48 hours before renewing the block.

Report this comment

I feel that this comment is:

Comment flagged

Thank You!

Your report has been sent to our moderators for review
Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.
Continue with Google
Sign up with Email