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Wheat: Trend Up?

Published 06/04/2018, 07:17
Updated 09/07/2023, 11:32

Wheat

Wheat

I did write about how toppy the market was last time:

Now this is the interesting bit...the final two moves up were large Bullish White Marubozos and the action today is currently forming at time of writing a Bearish Harami and also a possible Bearish Pipe Top. Watch this one carefully over the next few hours and days!

Lo and behold we did indeed form a Pipe Top and ultimately...including changeover...fell below the key Jul - Dec 2017 50% Fib at 492 and all the way down to the Long MA (currently 462) which had been good support previously. The proximity of the Medium MA nearby (currently 455) may also have helped but no doubt the Dec 2017-to-date Uptrend (currently 467) helped immensely. We had closes below both but they were singular...never consecutive...and the only really strong try lower turned into a Key Reversal Up last week.

This all looked good for the Bulls till Yesterday. On the surface, such action as yesterday ought to have pushed us lower but we ended still over the Uptrend and not really testing the Long MA at all. We actually had an Indecisive Doji Cross - Northern (Bullish) style and we've mildly followed on upwards today.

So where now? We've two options really...we can look at this action as a possible Bearish Halfway Hesitation with a potential in the region of 442. This seems unlikely as previous support has been quite solid...but I thought I ought to put it out there.

Alternatively, after the somewhat Bearish pressure we've seen and yet the market remained solid, it may be that we have an attempt higher...perhaps the Gap at 484 and then maybe to the 50% Fib at 492 again. It would seem therefore reasonable to suggest that whichever (barring false breaks) outside the 485 - 460 range may well see the next direction of the market...unless it chooses to go the Third Way of sideways. Given recent action and with only one MA pointing down, I think it appropriate to maintain the bullet point as mildly Bearish.

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