Wheat: Last month I wrote 'Overall, bullish outlook but with a question mark on the bullet point until the intentions become clearer if we go through 441 5/8.'. Well the market went through 441 5/8 and it looked initially as if the intentions were clear - a test up to the combination of Downtrend (currently 473) and the Upper Tine of the May 2014 - Dec 2014 move (currently 475 3/8). However, the action of the 16lh of Feb removed that option as we had a Key Reversal Down on that day.
Since then prices have fallen to the Long MA (currently 420), bounced and seemingly started to fall again. I have taken off the Bullish Channel Lines I drew last time as they seem no longer useful and instead view the recent KR on the Daily Chart along with the resultant Bearish Doji on the Monthly Chart that resulted from the move down as being the main current drivers. So where are we heading? Well, the two obvious points would be the Long MA and the Medium MA (currently 415), both rapidly approaching each other and perhaps combining (or cancelling) forces.
It is also noteworthy to look at the recent 50% Fib at 416 7/8 and the Aug 2016 - Feb 2017 50% Fib at 411 7/8...they are also supportive. Overall, we have support from about 420 down to 411. Resistance is at 438, 442, 444, 456, 461 and 465.1 realise that I may be able to d raw a Bullish Andrews or Schiff Pitchfork from the action late Jan - late Feb but I will hold off at the moment, just in case. Despite three out of four MAs pointing up, I am minded to move the bullet point into neutral to see how the market copes with testing the MAs as support.
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