Volkswagen: Shares on the Brink of Disaster or About to Take Off?

Published 27/01/2025, 13:56

Volkswagen (ETR:VOWG_p) has ambitious goals for the US market: the German carmaker wants to double its market share in the United States by 2030. We have to repeat that briefly so that it is clear what Volkswagen is planning: to double its market share in the US. At the World Economic Forum in Davos, CFO Arno Antlitz explained that additional investments would be needed to achieve this.

‘Further local measures are necessary to double the market share,’ emphasised Antlitz. He did not provide any specific details about the planned investments but hinted that research and development would be a key area.

VW is already working with the US electric carmaker Rivian to develop software for vehicles based on the new SSP platform, which is expected to come onto the market at the end of the decade.

Volkswagen currently has a market share of around four per cent in the US. Its local operations include the plant in Chattanooga, where models such as the electric SUV ID.4 and the Atlas are produced. VW is also planning to relaunch the US Scout brand with new electric vehicles.

Antlitz emphasised that VW sees itself as an integral part of the US economy and had plans to expand its US business even before President Donald Trump took office. One focus is also on so-called range extenders – electric cars with an additional petrol generator that are gaining popularity in China in particular.

Volkswagen likely has enough money to implement this ambitious project. We are now really seeing the light at the end of the tunnel, as we already announced in our article here on Investing on 29 November 2024. We go into more detail in our video analysis on our channel on YouTube and, of course, on our website in the customer area. 

The stock now has the best chance of completing an impulse movement, and then coming back in a correction that ends well above the last low at €78.86. If it succeeds, the stock is a clear buy for us. If not, it will finally sell off to around €65 to €50 in the worst case. But by then at the latest, the nightmare will finally be over.

Competition in Europe and China remains important

In addition to its goals in the US, Volkswagen also wants to strengthen its position in Europe and regain lost market share in China. Due to growing competition in the field of electric cars, VW has recently suffered setbacks in China. ‘From 2026, we plan to make a strong comeback in the competition,’ says Antlitz.

To achieve this, the company is working on building a competitive cost structure in China. VW is also focusing on increasing efficiency in Germany: a recently agreed austerity programme envisages the loss of 35,000 jobs and a reduction in production capacity of 734,000 vehicles annually.

In the long term, VW is aiming for an increase in returns to 6.5 per cent. However, a prerequisite for this is to raise productivity to a competitive level, explained Antlitz. If this does not succeed, further measures may be necessary.

2025 will probably be another strong year for equities. January got off to an extremely good start. Now many stocks are returning to important corrections, the bottoms of which we can use for purchases that will flush high profits into our portfolios over the medium to long term. If you would also like to benefit from our service and earn above-average returns, join our rapidly growing community. 

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