Congé Annuel
In France it has been a long-standing tradition that the world almost stops in August as workers in the private as well as the public sector leave Paris for their summer holidays. That tradition is weakening, but only slowly.
It is different in England where, if you have children at school, holiday in August is obligatory unless you want a criminal record for taking them out of school in term time. Nonetheless, the London stockmarket tends towards low volume in August with the higher volatility that that brings.
UK Stockmarket Almanac
The UK Stockmarket Annual tells us that, based on the figures since 1984, we can expect, with a 59% probability, a return in August of 0.6% for the FTSE 100 index. The statistics for July gave an expectation of a return of 0.8% but this was trumped by Mr Market with a return of minus 1.1%. The probability of a positive return was only 55%.
FTSE 100 in 2014
The ShareScope chart shows the year-to-date movements of the FTSE 100 index from market close on 1 January 2014 (6,717.90 at the left margin) to market close on 1 August 2014 (6,678.18 at the right margin). Thus, there was a fall of 1.0% year-to-date.
The pattern looks like an ascending triangle which has the probability that the break-out will be up through the horizontal resistance line which is around 6,865. A break-out could take the index off the chart to the range 7,200 to 7,300. There is, however, a risk that the index will continue to fall which could lead, initially, to around 6,500.
So What?
The prospects are wide open and there is nothing to tell us if the next move will be up or down. Fortunately, the FTSE 100 index is moving in a narrow range.
This material is published by Raymond James Investment Services Limited (RJIS) for information purposes only and should not be regarded as providing any specific advice. Opinions constitute our judgement of this date and are subject to change without warning.