Tesla: Will the Struggles Lead to Downturn or a Massive Rebound?

Published 01/04/2025, 10:53

The whistleblower revelations of the Handelsblatt paint a bleak picture of Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA). Internal documents, known as the ‘Tesla Files’, reveal technological weaknesses, management problems and a multitude of unfulfilled promises – a stark contrast to the company's former success story. 

Problems with Products and Customer Service

The revelations show serious defects in Tesla's vehicles and assistance systems, such as phantom braking of the Autopilot system, which was long marketed as advanced. In addition, the files document a customer service strategy that systematically avoids leaving written traces of complaints or repairs. Customers report weeks of repairs with no clear results.
 
The hardware also leaves something to be desired. The Cybertruck, once celebrated as an innovation, is struggling with production problems and recalls. Despite new battery cells (4680 format), the charging performance remains disappointing compared to the competition, as does the efficiency of the vehicle. Manufacturers such as Mercedes, BMW and BYD now outperform Tesla in charging speed and battery technology.

Regression in Innovation

Tesla, once a pioneer in electric mobility, is increasingly losing its technological edge. While other manufacturers are presenting 800- or even 1,000-volt platforms, Tesla is struggling with comparatively low charging capacities and inefficient models. In particular, Chinese competitors such as BYD are setting new standards and moving to the forefront of the industry.

Broken promises and excessive valuations

CEO Elon Musk is known above all for unrealistic promises, such as autonomous driving. His ‘Cybercab’ was announced for 2026 – six years late. However, experts doubt that it will be implemented, especially since Tesla continues to dispense with proven technologies such as lidar sensors.
 
Musk himself admits that Tesla's success is closely linked to the development of the autopilot. However, the reality falls short of expectations, putting Tesla under increasing pressure. Despite waning investor confidence and falling sales, the company's market capitalisation still appears inflated – a bubble that will either burst soon or lead to a massive increase in the share price, possibly anticipating future developments.

Technical analysis

The stock initially reflects the development. At the end of December 2024, it reached a new all-time high of $488.54 but lost almost 56% within a few weeks. A clear-cutting that is likely to have caused great nervousness among investors. Is that it? Will the stock continue to fall?
 
A look at the fundamentals also reveals the problems, but the company's financial health is in good condition. This is definitely a good sign:
 
Source: InvestingPro

The joke is that Tesla doesn't look too bad despite the bad press. The stock has lost a lot of ground but has not fallen below the crucial price level. If the stock falls below $222.28, a continuation of the price decline is likely, but if it falls below $181.17, a sustainable upward trend is no longer technically possible.
 
8-hour chart of Tesla

We believe that the stock can defend the low at $222.28 and rise sharply in the coming months. In the chart, we see the ideal upward movement based on the two so-called 1-2 setups. In the medium term, a new all-time high can even be expected.
 
However, should the stock fall below $181.17, it's all over. Then, it can easily fall to $88 or even lower. It's close.
 
Disclaimer/Risk warning:
The information provided here is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell. It should not be understood as an explicit or implicit assurance of a particular price development of the financial instruments mentioned or as a call to action. The purchase of securities involves risks that may lead to the total loss of the capital invested. The information provided does not replace expert investment advice tailored to individual needs. No liability or guarantee is assumed, either explicitly or implicitly, for the timeliness, accuracy, appropriateness or completeness of the information provided, nor for any financial losses. These are expressly not financial analyses, but journalistic texts. Readers who make investment decisions or carry out transactions based on the information provided here do so entirely at their own risk. The authors may hold securities of the companies/securities/shares discussed at the time of publication and therefore a conflict of interest may exist.

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