For the first time in over a decade, Tesla Inc's (NASDAQ:TSLA) vehicle deliveries are falling, and the latest business figures fall short of expectations. But CEO Elon Musk is trying to spread optimism with announcements about autonomous vehicles and humanoid robots.
Visions for the future
Elon Musk presented plans to launch the first robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, starting in June, with an expansion to numerous countries by the end of next year. He also reaffirmed that Tesla vehicles would soon be able to drive fully autonomously – a promise that was made in 2018 but remains unfulfilled to this day.
While competitors like Waymo already operate driverless robotaxis in several US cities, Tesla's ‘Full Self-Driving’ system (FSD) still requires human supervision.
Technological controversies
One key issue remains in Tesla's approach to autonomous driving technology: Musk relies exclusively on cameras and rejects the use of more expensive laser sensors (lidar). This technology allows for more precise, three-dimensional detection of the environment, while cameras could reach their limits in some situations.
Musk argues that people drive without ‘laser beams from their eyes’ and points to potential cost advantages. However, critics, including (BIT:BMW) and Polestar (NASDAQ:PSNY), believe that this approach is not safe enough.
Challenges in Europe
Musk also expressed dissatisfaction with regulatory hurdles in Europe. While the approval of the FSD system in the US continues to progress, the process in Europe is delayed. Musk criticised the fact that the multitude of regulations is slowing down innovation.
Progress in humanoid robots
In addition to autonomous vehicles, Musk talked about Tesla's humanoid robot called ‘Optimus’. These are designed to perform complex tasks such as playing the piano or threading sewing thread thanks to precise mechanical hands. Musk plans to reduce production costs to less than $20,000 per unit and to produce one million robots annually.
The quarterly figures
Sales rose two per cent year-on-year to $25.7 billion but fell short of the expected $27.3 billion. Profit fell by 71 per cent to $2.3 billion, which was also below analyst estimates.
Tesla delivered around 1.79 million vehicles in 2024, almost 20,000 fewer than in the previous year – the first decline in over ten years. In the fourth quarter in particular, Tesla fell short of its target of 515,000 units with 495,570 vehicles delivered.
The figures are not great, but they are not devastating either. After all, the discounts that Tesla offers on a large scale are weighing on profits. In addition, Tesla, like the rest of the European automotive industry, is facing growing competition from China. Against this backdrop, the figures were solid and expectations were perhaps too high.
However, it is also clear that Tesla, like Volkswagen (ETR:VOWG_p), for example, needs new and competitive models to take market share back from the Chinese. Both companies have the expertise and the money to make it happen. It will take some time, but it will happen.
The stock continues to perform stably and even has the chance of a direct and strong upward breakout and thus a return to a very strong uptrend. We do not see the stock collapsing. At worst, a strong pullback to around $320. However, we consider this to be significantly less likely than a continuation of the uptrend. Tesla is one of those stocks that make critics look extremely foolish. It just doesn't want to collapse - that's it. You can find exact analyses on our website.
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