Sugar: Last month I wrote 'We now need further closes above and thereby light any Bullish intent fairly swiftly. Why swiftly? Well because on other timeframe charts we just have indecision. It's on the Monthly Chart whilst on the Weekly Chart we had three weeks ago a Key Reversal Down with no follow through the following week (perhaps indicative of a lack of interest to head lower) which was then followed by a KR Up this past week.' I had laid out what was needed to move get the market moving on the upside and with a potential target of 23.15 along with what could happen if things did not move 'swiftly.' Well prices went up the very next session, but then failed and any opportunities to go for the 23.15 level have bene put aside for the time being.
We have for most of Feb gone sideways with a sharp drop the week before last and then spent last week just recovering. All this is not surprising if you consider that ALL the MAs are within 0.54 cent of each other - from Long MA to Short MA indecision. Additionally, two are up and two are down; more indecision. To go back for a moment to last week, I was very pleased to see that the fall halted at the Lower Tine of the Apr 2016 - Dec 2016 Schiff Pitchfork (currently 19.20). It's nice to see the Technical Analysis working even in indecisive markets.
So what now? Well, Friday' slightly Bearish Doji Cross of further indecision may mean that we try again at the Lower Tine. If that subsequently has two consecutive closes below then 18.68 is the next support with the nearby Middle Tine of the untested recent Bearish Schiff Pitchfork at 18.60(dynamic) acting in close proximity. After that, we have to look again at the 21st Century 50% Fib at 18.09 and its adjacent recent low at 17.84. The topside is limited because we are underneath all the compressed overhand resistances of the MAs plus the key 50% Fib at 20.87. Hence my moving the bullet point above into neutral, I suspect we may be sidelining between the Absolute 50% Fib at 18.09 and the MAs/20.87 50% Fib levels.
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