No news is...no news.
It is the nature of the foreign exchange market that when nothing is happening, there is literally nothing much to talk about.
I read a report just now that the pound fell by a quarter of a percent against the dollar yesterday. Is that news? Not at all. Why bother?
Commentary is, no question, a marketing tool. However, it needs to draw the reader in, not just provide a list of facts or events.
Today we have retail sales data for January set for release. This will be eagerly devoured by traders looking to see if the consumer is going to finally abandon its support for the U.K. economy.
A rise of around 1% (MoM) is expected and following the 1.9% fall in December it is likely that the pound will continue to remain supported. A year-on-year rise of 3.5% is lower than in December but shows that Brexit, inflation and calls for higher rates are not stopping young girls rushing to Primark or middle aged men staving off mid-life crisis with a new Merc or Audi.
Next week the speculation will start to grow about the date on which the government will trigger article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty which effective fires the starting pistol on Brexit negotiations for real.
Despite all the clamour over the result it is perhaps refreshing that the government is acting in a truly democratic way by bowing the the will of the people and accepting Brexit despite a number of their MP’s having campaigned for remain.
The U.S. dollar has barely been affected by the continued bluster of Donald Trump and his disagreements with the media. Given the dollar's continued status as the world's reserve currency, traders are far more interested in economic performance, interest rate differentials and employment than continued squabbling.
It’s President's Day on Monday. A long weekend beckons in the U.S. and traders will have little to get their teeth into in the first part of the week.
Purchasing managers of economic activity will be released in the Eurozone and U.S. on Tuesday and Eurozone inflation on Wednesday. Preliminary GDP data for the U.K. is also released on Wednesday with growth expected to be around 2.3%