Breaking News
Investing Pro 0
NEW! Get Actionable Insights with InvestingPro+ Try 7 Days Free

It's US Election Day

By London Capital GroupStock MarketsNov 03, 2020 08:02
It's US Election Day
By London Capital Group   |  Nov 03, 2020 08:02
Saved. See Saved Items.
This article has already been saved in your Saved Items

The day ahead is Election Day in the US where voters will head to the polls to cast a vote for President Donald Trump or former VP Joe Biden.

- Election Day is here!

- Dow jumps 400 points in rebound from rough week.

- Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) announces new 'one more thing' event for Nov 10.

- Dollar rallies for sixth straight day vs euro.

- Oil prices explode higher after comments by Russia on OPEC+ output.


Europe open

Stocks in Europe look set for a strongly higher open. With the US election as the main event in the next 24 hours, European investors are putting aside concerns over lockdown and taking cues from Wall Street.

Dow 400 points

The Dow jumping 400 points yesterday shows the exact same nervy trading that sent it lower hundred of points last week. We don’t read this as a ‘confident in stocks’ 400 points but more an 'too uncertain to keep selling' 400 points. A 10-point Biden lead according to a poll from the NBC/Wall Street journal may have offered investors some more strength in their convictions.

EUR/USD down 6 days running

Many have Biden down as a ‘dollar-negative’ President because of the implied extra deficit spending after new stimulus is passed but the dollar is up six days in a row vs the euro. The dollar strength up until now had been more a function of how the outlook for Europe has weakened with the 2nd lockdowns and a pretty explicit signal of extra QE in December from the ECB. This time the dollar gains were off the back of domestic strength. Manufacturing activity skyrocketed in October to a 2-year high reading of 59.3 in the ISM PMI reading.

Apple early Xmas present

Presumably Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) had this event planned anyway irrespective of the poor reaction to its Q3 numbers but for Apple investors it could offer some welcome distraction. Enthusiasm in Apple stock was muted in first reaction to what is probably the first MacBook powered by its own chips rather than Intel (NASDAQ:INTC).

Oil price rips

Having tanked on rising US inventories and plummeting demand expectations, there was better news on the supply side for oil on Monday. Russia was giving out the good vibes with talk of a delay to the tapering of production cuts for another three months. Three months would hopefully bring us past the peak of the second wave of COVID 19. With demand looking so soft, supply was the only real possible bullish catalyst for oil here.


Election Day

The nerves in markets have been palpable surrounding this election. Although most will agree over the long term elections don’t change the overall direction of the market, there is so much going on in the short term that could swing one way or the other.

Not much can be said about this election that hasn’t already been said already. From a markets perspective, Biden is baked into the cake but an elevated VIX index (fear gauge) tells you nobody’s ready to write off Trump completely. If The Donald does pull off another 2016, markets are not positioned for it and volatility will rise even higher. The most likely reason for elevated vol is a contested result – also not really priced outside of the VIX. Presumably some are using VIX derivatives to hedge against buying equities for a blue wave so that could unwind quickly if Biden sweeps in.


Earnings: Aramco (SE:2222), Bayer (DE:BAYGN), BNP Paribas (PA:BNPP), Associated British Foods (LON:ABF).

RBA rate decision (cut to 0.1% from 0.25% expected).

API crude inventories.


  • FTSE 100 = 5709 (+55pts).

  • DAX = 11,898 (+110pts).

  • Dow Jones = 27,107 (+182pts).

Original Post

It's US Election Day

Related Articles

It's US Election Day

Add a Comment

Comment Guidelines

We encourage you to use comments to engage with users, share your perspective and ask questions of authors and each other. However, in order to maintain the high level of discourse we’ve all come to value and expect, please keep the following criteria in mind: 

  • Enrich the conversation
  • Stay focused and on track. Only post material that’s relevant to the topic being discussed.
  • Be respectful. Even negative opinions can be framed positively and diplomatically.
  •  Use standard writing style. Include punctuation and upper and lower cases.
  • NOTE: Spam and/or promotional messages and links within a comment will be removed
  • Avoid profanity, slander or personal attacks directed at an author or another user.
  • Don’t Monopolize the Conversation. We appreciate passion and conviction, but we also believe strongly in giving everyone a chance to air their thoughts. Therefore, in addition to civil interaction, we expect commenters to offer their opinions succinctly and thoughtfully, but not so repeatedly that others are annoyed or offended. If we receive complaints about individuals who take over a thread or forum, we reserve the right to ban them from the site, without recourse.
  • Only English comments will be allowed.

Perpetrators of spam or abuse will be deleted from the site and prohibited from future registration at’s discretion.

Write your thoughts here
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
Post also to:
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Thanks for your comment. Please note that all comments are pending until approved by our moderators. It may therefore take some time before it appears on our website.
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Add Chart to Comment
Confirm Block

Are you sure you want to block %USER_NAME%?

By doing so, you and %USER_NAME% will not be able to see any of each other's's posts.

%USER_NAME% was successfully added to your Block List

Since you’ve just unblocked this person, you must wait 48 hours before renewing the block.

Report this comment

I feel that this comment is:

Comment flagged

Thank You!

Your report has been sent to our moderators for review
Our Apps
© 2007-2022 Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.
Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
  • Sign up for FREE and get:
  • Real-Time Alerts
  • Advanced Portfolio Features
  • Personalized Charts
  • Fully-Synced App
Continue with Google
Sign up with Email