A disappointing non-farm jobs report did damage to the dollar this Friday, only for the US manufacturing PMIs to mitigate the greenback’s losses.
All 3 of the jobs figure fell short of expectations in August. The headline non-farm number fell from (a downwards revised) 189k in July to just 156k, while wage growth slipped from 0.3% to 0.1% month-on-month. To cap it all off the unemployment rate inched higher, rising back to 4.4%.
The initial aftermath saw investors flee the dollar, the currency plunging half a percent against both the pound and the euro. However, with the Markit manufacturing PMI a tad better than forecast at 52.8, and the ISM reading smashing estimates to hit a near 3 year peak of 58.8, the currency pulled back from the brink. The greenback is now down just 0.1% against the pound – with cable flitting around $1.295 – and is actually up 0.3% against the euro.
The euro’s decline, more so than the non-farm figures, was arguably Friday afternoon’s defining feature. With the latest ECB meeting next Thursday investors are beginning to question whether Draghi and co. will produce anything euro-positive, especially since the central bank will likely proceed very slowly with its tapering plans in order to make sure the euro doesn’t get another steroid injection and obliterate the region’s gradual inflation growth. This meant that the euro’s losses against the dollar were joined by a 0.3% fall against the pound, with sterling also benefiting from the UK’s own impressive manufacturing PMI.
All this forex drama had important ramifications for the Western indices. The Dow Jones just about slumped across the 22000 mark with a 0.2% rise while the FTSE could only eke out a 5 point increase, both hampered by their respective currencies. The DAX and CAC, however, where overjoyed at the euro’s weakness, surging 0.8% and 0.7% respectively.
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