With some recent readings suggesting a potential recession, how exactly did the UK economy fare in the second quarter?
UK
Following another alarming manufacturing PMI last week, the services sector comes under the spotlight on Monday, teetering on the edge of contraction territory having hit 50.2 the previous month.
There’s then a barren patch in the middle before the UK gets to the real juicy stuff on Friday. In a morning full of manufacturing and industrial production figures, the goods trade balance number and the latest monthly growth estimate, it is the first official glimpse at the Q2 GDP reading that is the real draw. A drop-off from the first quarter’s 0.5% is expected.
Of course, there is every chance that none of this will come to matter if the pound gets in another no-deal Brexit panic. Boris Johnson’s approach to negotiations with the EU has immediately become a problem for sterling, something unlikely to change this week.
As for the corporate calendar, HSBC reports on Monday, with InterContinental Hotels and Rolls-Royce (LON:RR) Holdings on Tuesday, Glencore (LON:GLEN) on Wednesday, Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) HBC and Aviva (LON:AV) on Thursday, and Hikma Pharmaceuticals (LON:HIK) on Friday.
US
After last week’s Fed and nonfarm drama, this week is slightly tamer for the US. The ISM and Markit services PMIs arrive on Monday, following by the JOLTS job openings on Tuesday, the jobless claims on Thursday and the PPI data on Friday.
Any movement on the US-China trade war, following Donald Trump’s shock escalation last week, could be the most important thing for the Dow Jones et al.
Eurozone
Steady but largely unspectacular is maybe the best description of the Eurozone’s impending economic calendar. Well, as long as Monday’s services PMIs aren’t as worrying as last week’s manufacturing readings. Tuesday then sees the German factory orders, Wednesday the country’s industrial production data, and Friday the French counterpart.
Stock of the week: InterContinental Hotels Group PLC – Interim Results on Tuesday 6th August
Sitting near an all-time high and up around 35% in 2019, InterContinental Hotels will be looking to accommodate another batch of investors when it posts its half year results on Tuesday.
May saw it post a 5.4% increase in Q1 net system size to 843k rooms, alongside a 0.3% rise in global comparable revenue per available room. That latter figure saw a 0.6% jump in the US and a flat performance in Greater China joined by a 0.7% decline in RevPAR in Europe, Middle East, Asia & Africa.
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