Support 7360 7350 7345 7279 7277 7260 7240
Resistance 7368 7396 7401 7417 7425 7443 7520
Good morning, I hope you had a good weekend. Kicking off a bit in Asia at the moment with North Korea firing four ballistic missiles into the sea off Japan, putting the Japanese on edge and also on a highest state of alert. Other Asian stock markets were not so worried, with HK and Shanghai advancing. Probably only be todays news and in fact the futures prices on the FTSE and Dax have already recovered from the initial lows (7340 and 11950 respectively). In other news, China has cut its growth target to around 6.5 percent for 2017, as Beijing focuses on stability ahead of a sensitive political gathering later this year. In the UK we have the budget on Wednesday, which may give some clues for future interest rate movements. There was a rumour a while back that it could even be cut further to 0%! Will we get the usual bull Monday, bear Tuesday again this week?
FTSE 100 Outlook
To start with the FTSE looks like its going to remain bullish. We have bounced a bit from the initial low on the futures at 7340 and still have resistance at the 7395 to 7400 level initially. So we may well see a rise to here today. If this level breaks then the next level of note is the top of the 10 day Bianca at 7443 and daily resistance at the round number 7450. However, in between them we have the 20 day Bianca at 7425 and R3 at 7517 - so the bulls might not have not all their own way with a one way rise today. Bulls will need to be quick out the blocks to hold the 7350 support.
On the bearish side, support is 7345 where we have the 200ema on the 30min, and below this 7280 and 7277 for the bottom of the Bianca channels, with 7240 as daily support below this. The bulls have remained fairly steadfast recently though and after that rise on Wednesday the FTSE has remained fairly flat - a bit annoying really as limits the trade options and hard to get a decent runner. Just before the bell on Friday, we got a small 15 point drop off the 7385 resistance level on the 2 hour, but with the day fairly lacklustre the 7400 level wasn't tested - but it might today.
Once again, its the GBP/USD that is helping the FTSE, with the 12500 level still marking the top for the moment, and now a further slide into 12280 helping to keep the FTSE positive, despite a daily RSI(10) hovering around 70 (slightly overbought but not a signal to go short).