Well that was a very flat day on the FTSE yesterday, despite a rise and dip on the US markets, which rallied after Trump backtracked on attacking Syria, and also hinted at rejoining NAFTA.
The FTSE 100 was tempered by cable rising to retest the 142 level, and also the miners kept a lid on it too as they were weak. We head into earnings season again, with financial firms posting some of the biggest gains Thursday after BlackRock's (NYSE:BLK) first-quarter results topped estimates. JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE:JPM). and Citigroup Inc (NYSE:C). are scheduled to release theirs today.
The FTSE hasn't really dropped off the resistance levels and as trends rarely change on a Friday I expect that we will see a rise towards the 7300 level today. I would say the bulls have made hard work of it but with everything against them they have done well to keep it at the 7250 area. As such I am looking for further upside over the next few weeks, with a move below 7144 invalidating that. For today however, I can see a rise and dip scenario, rising to 7300ish then dropping back ahead of the close as profits get banked.
FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction
For most of today I am expecting a bit of a climb towards the key resistance levels at 7298 and 7323. Will we push above these late on a Friday ahead of some US earnings and a weekend? Probably not. However, for this morning and probably early afternoon I am expecting a slow rise. The S&P dropped off the 2665 and 2672 resistance levels yesterday but is still looking fairly positive, with the 2 hour support holding overnight at 2653.
The FTSE 100 has some initial resistance at 7282 so the bulls will be keen to break this to get up towards the 7300 level and also R2 at 7295. The key fib level for today is at 7302, with R3 only a little bit higher at 7318. We might see a possible stop hunt to above 7300 before a drop back down of course, and it being a Friday it's likely to be a bit odd anyway! I have put a fairly tight stop on the 7298 short as if it does go stop hunting then the 7333 level is probably where it goes, or it just reacts perfectly at that level. Feel free to have wider stops if you wish.
Support wise, we are right on the daily pivot at 7252, and below this we have the 200ema on the 30min chart at 7226, with a key fib at 7206. We also have daily support at the 7144 level and this looks like a decent swing long level - not sure that we see that today (we might not even get as low as 7206) but if we did then its worth taking a long here.
Gold has dropped back, Middle East war panic seems to have abated a bit with more surgical strikes planned against military and chemical weapons facilities, rather than an all out 'Yee Haw' attack, tariffs and trade wars have taken a back seat as the rhetoric has cooled and we now await the next flare up. There's always something for us to navigate isn't there!