Euro Froze in Anticipation of New Drivers

Early in another April week, the major currency pair is falling a bit not far from 1.1890 – the asset is looking rather inactive and waiting for new catalysts.
 
The statistics that came from Europe were rather minor: the German Industrial production lost 1.6% m/m in February against the expected reading by 1.6% m/m. Numbers from Germany are perceived by investors in a very negative way right now because they are afraid of possible deterioration in the major European economy.
 
The USA reported on the Core PPI, which added 0.7% m/m in March after expanding by 0.2% m/m in the previous month and against the same expected reading. The Wholesale Inventories added 0.6% m/m in February against the expected reading of +0.5% m/m.
 
The US bond yield is “in the black” again and that’s excellent support for the “greenback”.
 
In the H4 chart, after completing the ascending wave at 1.1920, EUR/USD is falling to reach 1.1857 and may later grow towards 1.1890, thus forming a new consolidation range between the two latter levels. If the price breaks this range to the downside, the market may fall to reach 1.1800; if to the upside – resume trading upwards with the target at 1.1980 and then form a new descending structure towards 1.1740. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by MACD Oscillator: its signal line is moving above 0 outside the histogram area, thus implying its further decline towards 0. Later, the line is expected to break 0 and continue falling.
 

 
As we can see in the H1 chart, EUR/USD is falling towards 1.1857; right now, it is forming the fifth wave. After that, the instrument may correct to reach 1.1890 and then start a new decline with the target at 1.1800. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic Oscillator: after breaking 50 to the downside, its signal line is steadily falling towards 20.


 
By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex
 
Disclaimer
Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author's particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.