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Wheat: Trend Up?

Published 03/07/2017, 06:37
Updated 09/07/2023, 11:32

Last month I noted:

MAs are turning sideways and may be narrowing soon with only the medium MA sill showing bullishness. With this in mind and even though we have a new downtrend for May, I'm tempted to move the bullet point above into neutral until a better scenario appears.

Guess what? Another 'scenario' did indeed appear. Prices started to rebel against the neutrality as soon as the second week of June and tried higher. Initially they came across age old bearish resistance in the form of Schiff Pitchforks dating from the May 2014 - December 2014 period.

These held for a little, but the pressure built up between March - May was enough to force the door open for higher prices. After the previous failure of the try higher in May with a lower high, it was nice to see a decent breakout upwards, enough that we had a Key Reversal Up on the weekly chart. Additionally, the MAs that had bunched last time have by now cleared a bit and we have a golden cross of the short/medium MA up over the medium MA, another welcome sign to the bulls. This has also given me the opportunity to draw a bullish Andrews Pitchfork over the December 2016 - May 2017 action, something which I was afraid to do last month because of the lower high we'd seen in May.

Therefore, with all MA's pointing upwards and the actual market being well clear of the MAs on the upside as well, I've moved the bullet point into full bullish.

Support is currently at 510, 490 ^(dynamic), 482 /, 474 468 3/8, 461 1/8 - 453 3/8 and 441 5/8 - 440.

Resistance is currently at 511 /, 523 7/8, 530 7/8 and 4901/4 (dynamic).

Wheat Chart

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