A very interesting Daily Chart for crude oil, above. Last month I had generally reckoned on the action from Dec. 2016 - start of Mar. 2017 being a possible ammunition gathering exercise in the form of an Ascending Triangle even though:
'...it could after all turn into a Rounded or Multiple Top affair and I'm not too certain at this time on the veracity of this move higher.'
This acton failed actually on the 6th - 7th of Mar with two Indecisive Dojis which preceded the fall down through the Uptrend and further. The market busted down through the support offered by the Medium MA and the Long MA and finally came to rest on the combinaton of the 38.2% Fib of the Nov. 2016 - Jan. 2017 move at 47.18 and the key 50% Fib of the Aug. 2016 - Jan. 2017 move at 47.19...just 0.01 difference between the two.
Why these? Well, for ease of explanaton please note how the staring distance on the original Ascending Triangle as marked by letters A - B on the Daily Chart above is matched by the distance from the breakdown through the Uptrend of distance C - D. This was a measured move down and it coincided (if you believe coincidence had something to do with it...) with the Fib combo.
We've since recovered and there is an argument for calling the recovery as Triple Bottom...but I won't just yet. The recovery now poses us with another interestng queston. The move back up is now approaching the combo of the Medium MA (currently 50.92) AND the new 50% Fib of this move down at 50.98...what will the market do?
I have drawn both a Bullish Andrews and Schiff Pitchfork in case of recovery...but this Triple Bottom could spin on a dime and become a Bear Flag very swiftly. On balance, I'm minded to let the bullet point go into neutral on the assumpton that perhaps we will have a wide trading range of 47.00 -55.50...for the moment at least. Support is currently at 50.25, 50.04, 49.62, 49.09, 48.63 - 48.71, 48.20(dynamic), 47.47 - 47.18(dynamic). Resistance is currently at 50.92 - 50.98(combo & dynamic), 51.22, 51.91, 52.54, 53.05(dynamic), 53.45(dynamic), 53.80, 54.34, 54.94 & 55.23.
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