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Asian stocks pull ahead as dollar retreats, U.S. yields resume climb

Published 25/11/2016, 06:39
Updated 25/11/2016, 06:39
© Reuters. Men walk past an electronic board showing Japan's Nikkei average outside a brokerage in Tokyo

© Reuters. Men walk past an electronic board showing Japan's Nikkei average outside a brokerage in Tokyo

By Nichola Saminather

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Asian stocks advanced on Friday as the Thanksgiving break in the United States helped slow a relentless surge in the dollar that has sucked capital out of most emerging markets.

European markets, however, are poised for a more lacklustre start, with financial spreadbetter CMC Markets expecting Britain's FTSE 100 (FTSE) to open 0.1 percent lower, and Germany's DAX (GDAXI) and France's CAC 40 (FCHI) to be flat.

The respite for Asian assets too may be short-lived, with U.S. Treasury yields resuming their climb after the holiday as investors bet that President-elect Donald Trump will adopt policies that increase spending and debt, as well as spur higher growth and inflation.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (MIAPJ0000PUS) added 0.5 percent. It is set to end the week 1.7 percent higher, its biggest weekly gain in two months.

But it remains down 2.7 percent from its close on Nov. 8 before Trump's surprise election win. His protectionist campaign promises are widely seen as negative for the region.

Emerging market stocks have also broadly taken a hit, although the MSCI Emerging Markets index (MIEF00000PUS) pared losses to 0.2 percent on Friday. While the index is up 1.2 percent for the week, it remains 5.3 percent below its Nov. 8 close.

The dollar index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major global peers, edged down 0.1 percent to 101.60 on Friday, down from its Thursday peak of 102.05, the highest level since March 2003.

The U.S. currency has been on a tear since Trump's win, and strong U.S. manufacturing and consumer data this week have bolstered the case for higher interest rates. The dollar index has risen 0.4 percent this week, and 3.8 percent since Nov. 8.

"The trend is likely to remain with the U.S. (Federal Reserve) poised to strike in December and market positioning for U.S. President-elect Trump to fulfil his fiscal and tax cut plans," Singapore-based UOB Group's global economics and markets research team wrote in a note on Friday.

The expectations are triggering a dramatic surge in bond yields, which is pulling capital out of emerging markets.

The two-year U.S. Treasury yield jumped to a 6-1/2-year high of 1.17 percent on Friday. It was at 1.1506 percent as of 0540 GMT.

The 10-year yield, which hit a 16-month high of 2.417 percent this week, was at 2.3915 on Friday.

The dollar's pullback on Friday took some pressure off other currencies, which have been pummelled this month by its strength.

After touching an eight-month high earlier in the session, the dollar was flat at 113.35 yen. Still, it is poised for a 2.2 percent jump this week.

The Nikkei (N225), which earlier hit its highest level since January, edged back to close 0.26 percent above Thursday's close as the dollar moderated. The index is on track for a weekly gain of 2.1 percent, and is up almost 6.9 percent since before the U.S. election.

Analysts also expect Japanese consumer prices, which fell for their eighth straight month in October, to rebound as the weaker yen pushes up import costs.

The dollar's retreat also helped the euro , which has been battered by the greenback's recent surge and nervousness ahead of Italy's constitutional referendum on Dec. 4.

The common currency rose 0.2 percent to $1.057, after slumping to the lowest level since March 2015 against the dollar on Thursday. Its recovery pared losses for the week so far to 0.2 percent.

Wall Street was closed on Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday and trading will end early on Friday.

European stocks ended on a positive note, with the Stoxx 600 index (STOXX) gaining 0.3 percent at the close.

Chinese shares rose, with the blue chip CSI 300 index <.CSI300> up about 0.4 percent. The Shanghai Composite <.SSEC> reversed earlier losses to climb 0.1 percent. Hong Kong's Hang Seng (HSI) added 0.4 percent.

Oil prices slipped as investors awaited next week's meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) for clarity on proposed output caps, but remained on track for weekly gains.

"Consolidation ahead of major events are no surprise and we are expecting this with what could be reckoned as the most important event of the year for crude oil prices next week – the November 30 OPEC meeting," Jingyi Pan, market strategist at IG in Singapore, wrote in a note.

U.S. crude futures (CLc1) slid 0.7 percent to $47.64 a barrel, but were set to clock a weekly increase of 4.3 percent, building on last week's 5.3 percent jump.

Global benchmark Brent crude (LCOc1) pulled back 0.9 percent to $48.58, shrinking its gains for the week to 3.7 percent.

Gold <XAU=> remained under pressure, plunging to its lowest level since February. It retreated 0.4 percent to $1,179.7 an ounce on Friday, down 2.5 percent this week.

© Reuters. Men walk past an electronic board showing Japan's Nikkei average outside a brokerage in Tokyo

It has plunged a whopping 7.6 percent since its close before the U.S. election results were announced.

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